The Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, and the Congress want the UP elections to be held as programmed, early in 2022 — before March-April 2022. Is the Bharatiya Janata Party, like Barkis in David Copperfield, willing? Or, does the Modi Government, as alleged by the opposition parties, want elections in the 5-states postponed?

The ball is in the Election Commission’s court. But isn’t the EC the handmaiden of the Modi Government? At least that is the impression going around. The anti-Modi are adamant that the EC is firmly under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s thumb.

It is also said that Modi might not be a Xi Jinping, but he wouldn’t mind carrying on till 2029. The grapevine says the 3-membber Election Commission is mandated to see Modi through to 2029.

The fact that Modi’s on a healthy ‘khichdi and mushroom’ diet with a booster of Yoga will see to it that Modi stays around even 10 years from now. Modi supporters—otherwise called ‘Modi-bhakts’— insist Modi will live a long and fruitful life.

But Modi also lives on a diet of winning elections. Without election victories Modi will wilt like yesterday’s sunflower. Modi’s job is to keep the lotus from wilting. The fact that elections in India are all-year round keeps Modi from wilting.

The feeling is that as long as there are elections to win, the BJP will not be able to do without Modi. It is like the Congress without the Gandhi family—a dud!

That said, the BJP is not all that confident it will be able to do a repeat of 2017 in 2022. The 2017 trump in Uttar Pradesh was a fluke. Nobody in the BJP saw it coming. Modi and Shah didn’t see it coming—they were caught on the wrong foot. And Gorakhpur’s Yogi Adityanath as Chief Minister was a snap decision, not planned action!

Today, the Modi-Shah juggernaut would not mind taking another snap decision post-UP election. There is dour acceptance of Yogi but also the settling feeling that the Modi-Shah duo could do without Yogi. If the BJP wins UP 2022, Yogi will be King!

The three-member EC was “summoned” by the PMO for an unprecedented “virtual meeting” recently. The Chief Election Commissioner and the two election commissioners answered to the summons and “attended” the virtual meeting though it wasn’t something to gloat about. Neither something to downplay.

How was it that the PMO could order the CEC and two ECs around, is the EC at the beck and call of the PMO? The EC has the chance to answer that question—take a decision on whether the assembly elections should be held or postponed?

“Does the EC know what the PMO wants?” is a no-brainer. The EC must have been told what the Centre, the Modi Government—Prime Minister Modi—wants. The grapevine says the elections will not be postponed, Omicron or no Omicron, and neither will the public rallies.

The EC is on a three-day tour of Uttar Pradesh to take stock of the conditions in the state following the Omicron scare. Whether the conditions favoured elections or not? This, after a “stocktaking meeting” with Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan on December 27.

The EC will most likely stress on hastening full vaccinations and leave it at that. The feeling is the Modi Government wants the elections to go as scheduled and the EC to announce the dates ASAP. Opposition parties may doubt the ruling party at the Centre and the state, but delaying the elections will only leave the BJP more scared of the outcome.

There is this feeling that the Modi-Shah duo does not want their election juggernaut to come to a grinding halt. Once stalled, it will be difficult to reignite. A lot of money and time has already been invested and as far as the Omicron goes, it seems to be of no great shakes—a precautionary dose will do to keep it at bay. (IPA Service)