However, such a communal strategy does not seem working in favour of the BJP, which is evident since September 2021, when an opinion poll had predicted a loss of about 60 seats for the NDA in comparison to 2017 Vidhan Sabha election in which NDA had got 325 seats out of 403 seats. Month after month the opinion polls predicting greater loss for the BJP. In terms of seats BJP is set to lose 100 seats, out of 309 seats they had won in 2017. It means the BJP may get around only 209 seats, while 202 seats are required to form the government. Though the opinion polls are prediction around 225 seats for NDA, but it may be a far-fetched idea since the old NDA partner Apna Dal is in very bad shape after vertical split within the party due to infighting, and the new alliance partner Nishad Party winnability is untested.

Thus, the BJP has to rely not on NDA partners but on their own political fortune that has clearly been dwindling for the last six month. There political base among Brahmins and OBCs has been shifting, the former yet to make up their mind while most of the OBCs have already been shifted to its old champion Samajwadi Party. The opinion polls have already indicated this change, by prediction about 3 per cent loss in vote percentage for the BJP. If it is correct the vote share of the BJP would come down to just around 36 per cent.

In September 2021, one opinion poll has predicted around 0.4 per cent gain for the BJP, even then the loss was predicted about 60 seats. The corresponding loss with predicted 3 per cent of votes had already made the BJP leadership desperate who have been playing communal politics that began with Ayodhya, and now spread to Kashi and Mathura, influencing the Central, Eastern, and Western part of the Uttar Pradesh respectively. The ABP-CVoter opinion poll this month had predicted that the BJP and its allies will win with 223-235 seats.

The level of their desperation among the BJP leaders has even increased since the resignations of three Ministers and eight MLAs from the party, primarily OBC leaders. One of them was from their alliance Apna Dal. It is obvious now that the real loss to the BJP would be far more than the opinion poll have predicted for them, though comforting them that they would return to power. Moreover, it has become highly doubtful if BJP’s allies could even be able to win a few seats.

As against this, the political fortune of Samajwadi Party has been predicted on the rise that can be seen in the crowd gathering in their rallies. The opinion polls are unanimous on the gain of the Samajwadi Party. ABP-CVoter had predicted this month that the party would be able to win 145-157 seats on their own. As their vote percentage, it was predicted that the party would be able to get over 34 per cent of votes as against only about 22 per cent in 2017. It should be noted in this prediction that it was made without taking into consideration its allies influence, such as RLD in the Western Utter Pradesh, where the party has considerable vote bank among Jats and farmer communities. Many other leaders deserting BSP, Congress, and the BJP are increasingly heading towards Samajwadi Party which make their prospects even better. In this scenario, it is clear that Samajwadi Party is heading towards a far better political performance than has been predicted by the opinion polls.

It is in this backdrop, opinion polls still prediction BJP’s coming to power has become a matter of concern for the Samajwadi Party. The SP leader Akhilesh Yadav has said that these opinion polls were trying to ‘intoxicate the public mind’ in favour of the ruling party. The party has also written to the Election Commission of India (ECI), seeking a ban on the opinion polls on the grounds that they could affect the outcome of the elections. Its ally RLD has also urged the ECI to ban opinion polls with immediate effect, because they are trying to influence voters in favour of the BJP.

In early January, ABP-CVoter had predicted about the Congress and the BSP that they have been drifting to the margins of the electoral politics in Uttar Pradesh. The opinion poll had predicted 8-16 seats for the BSP and 3-7 seats for the Congress. However, now the situation seems to be even worse for both the parties. Many of their leaders have already left to join the Samajwadi Party, since they felt their personal political growth would not get further push due to their perception of their dwindling vote banks. Samajwadi Party has given seats even to some of them, which has made SP’s prospects brighter than ever before.

All these indicate that vote banks are shifting from the three political parties – the BJP, BSP, and the Congress to Samajwadi Party. Uttar Pradesh is thus heading towards bipolar contests in almost all seats – the BJP is set to perform worse, while the SP far better than it has been predicted by opinion polls. (IPA Service)