Congress and TC are fighting jointly in West Bengal against the CPI-M- dominated Left Front. And all indications are that the TC will be able to win a substantial number of seats out of the 28 it is contesting as a part of the alliance. Even if the TC gets about 12 seats, which is very likely, this will be an additional number for the Congress if the UPA fails to muster a majority even with the support of the Fourth Front.

Given a choice, the Congress would like to form a coalition government at the Centre without Left support. But the arithmetic of the elections precludes the emergence of such a situation; and in order to form a non-BJP government, Left support will be a must. The Congress faces the dilemma of choosing its allies outside the UPA. For instance, the Congress cannot take the help of both BSP and SP to form the government. It will be better for the Congress to seek SP support since the latter is a votary of UPA government at the Centre despite its differences with the Congress leadership on a number of issues and the failure of the electoral adjustments in Uttar Pradesh.

Similarly, the Congress cannot accept the AIADMK of Jayalalithaa with open arms since DMK is a part of the UPA; and DMK and AIADMK cannot be part of the same coalition. There is the problem of seeking JD(U) support even though Bihar Chief Minister and the leading figure of JD(U) in Bihar, Nitish Kumar is keeping his distance from the BJP and might consider responding to the Congress overture. But here the problem is that JD(U) will like RJD to be out of the coalition government headed by the Congress. The Congress leadership has to think twice before responding to JD(U) because, despite differences and the latest bickering, Lalu Prasad has remained a loyal supporter of the Congress-led coalition.

As the country has entered the third phase of elections out of the total of five phases, there are increasing signs of a more fractured Lok Sabha emerging after May 16; accordingly, both regional parties and smaller parties will be playing a decisive role in shaping the nature of the government formation. NDA led by BJP has less advantage compared to the Congress in enticing parties outside the alliances, but the dichotomy which the Congress faces, is not present in BJP led alliance. BJP can accept any political party outside NDA if the latter is willing. Right now, the parties which are members of NDA, are likely to stick to it. And excepting JD(U), others are solidly with the BJP. The BJP is open to taking new allies like TC, AIADMK or even DMK if AIADMK sides with the Congress. But all these developments will fructify only when the BJP-led NDA has the figure to attract other parties for forming a government at the centre.

Trinamool Congress was a part of the NDA earlier and Mamata was the Railway Minister in the Vajpayee government. That way, Mamata can take a decision to support NDA as soon as the Congress decides to seek support of the CPI-M led Left Front. For Mamata, the major political battle is in West Bengal where she has a one-point agenda of removing the CPI-M from the government. She has emerged as the symbol of opposition to the CPI-M rule in West Bengal. She has been able to galvanise the disgruntled masses against the CPI-M. Naturally, she wants to push the political situation to its logical end: the winning of assembly elections in 2011.She will not allow the Congress to do anything which will help the Left politically to rehabilitate itself in the state.

For the Congress, this is the major dilemma in West Bengal. Even if the TC-Congress alliance fares well in the Lok Sabha elections, its sustenance till 2011 is dependent on the post-election situation. If the Congress is forced to seek Left support, that will bring to an end the Trinamool Congress's bonhomie with it. TC will move alone and it will be getting good support of the Congress masses who have been fighting against the Left front rule in the state. The Congress bid to form a government at the Centre with Left support may cause heavy erosion in the party's support base in West Bengal.#