In Awadh and Bundelkhand, BJP appears to be marginally ahead of SP alliance, while in eastern UP, the competition is slated to be neck and neck. Moreover, if SP is thought to be doing well in the first two phases, it may get momentum in its favour, buoying its boat in choppier waters of subsequent phases.

So, what may work for SP and what may work for the BJP in the first two phases?

For the SP, rural Jat voters still seem to be favouring the SP-RLD alliance, at least in the Meerut — Muzaffarnagar sugarcane belt, despite BJP’s high-pitched attempts to woo them back. However, this might not translate to the wholesale shift of Jat voters to the SP-RLD camp, particularly in the Braj region (Agra, Aligarh and Mathura), and in seats where the alliance’s ticket has gone to SP’s Muslim candidates.

Also for SP, Muslim voters appear to have strongly consolidated behind the SP-RLD alliance. A recent survey indicated that 77% of Muslims might vote for the SP alliance. This kind of Muslim consolidation, if realized would be unprecedented in a state, where, in Muslim have remained divided between SP-BSP-Congress triumvirate.

In no region of the state are Muslims as heavily concentrated as in western UP: In 58 of the 113 seats of the first two phases the Muslim population exceeds 30%. While Owaisi’s campaign has gained some traction among a section of Muslims, how many will vote for the party is unclear. The more worrying question for the SP alliance would be how many Muslims might end up voting for a strong Muslim candidate of BSP, which has fielded Muslims in 35% of the seats going to poll in the first two phases.

Therefore, if the SP-RLD has to do well in western UP, it has to be on the back of this Muslim-Jat combination. In many seats of the first phase, these two sections comprise upward of a third of electorate; in the second phase seats, Muslims alone often exceed that number.

However, BJP possesses a powerful electoral combination of its own, even The Upper castes are solidly behind it, like a resolute vote bank; and the non-Yadav OBC voters (a third of the electorate of western UP) are still tilting towards saffron camp, even if perhaps not in the same huge numbers as in 2017 and 2019.

These smaller backward castes—Sainis, Pals and Nishads etc—who are hardly untouched by farmers movement , might still be swayed with hard Hindutva and BJP’s law and order pitch. Even the exodus of backward caste leaders from BJP was more concentrated in eastern UP than in the west (with the exception of certain leaders like Dharam Singh Saini).

The intermediary caste that lies in the balance are Gujjars, who also participated to some extent in the farmers’ movement. They voted in bulk for the BJP last time but have enough resentment against Yogi government (such as the controversy over its icon Raja Mihir Bhoj) to go to the constituency-wise approach this time. These castes are the swing voters of western UP, and also sensitive to BJP’s localized whisper campaigns of Jat domination.

Another section of flexible voters that BJP is banking on are non-Jatav Dalits such as Palis, Dhobis and Koris, 32% of whom voted for the BJP in the last state elections. They are among the core target of the BJP’s welfare pitch: with many receiving benefits such as free rations and cash handouts during the pandemic years.

BSP has been losing the support of these non-Jatav Dalits, who compromise 46% of Dalits of the state, steadily for the last decade. These are also sections most poorly targeted by SP’s campaign so far; hence, any further defection of them from BSP’s campaign is likely to benefit BJP.

Beyond caste dynamics, there are also material issues that are playing their part in shaping the mood of voters. BJP is weakest on the issue of price rise, unemployment and stray cattle; but is leading in the sphere of law and order, welfare and infrastructure.

Perhaps, the framing of characteristic of the election in two phases is that it is a wave-less election, where voting might vary substantially, according to constituency and sub-region.

These two phases represent the home leg of the competition for the SP coalition, where a favourable election pitch had been already prepared for it by farmers’ agitation. SP’s hopes to win UP depends crucially on voters that on Thursday and on February 14. (IPA Service)