Old timers recall how Gita Mukherjee was literally in tears when she appealed to the Lok Sabha in 1988 to pass the bill. She was the standing committee chairperson, which examined the women's bill then. It was the determination of UPA chief Sonia Gandhi, which ultimately pushed the bill after 15 years of efforts. She had shown her grit even earlier when she made sure that one third posts in the Congress party is reserved for women. She deserves kudos for her efforts.

While the women are jubilant, there are many more hurdles ahead. But the biggest of them is the Lok Sabha where parties of different hues are not very enthusiastic about it, some demanding quota within quota. It was easier in the House of Elders because they have no stakes.

Second, the bill also has to be passed by at least 14 state Assemblies and then sent for the President's assent after which it will reach the Election Commission. The process is too long. There is also not much clarity in the bill. Moreover, what about the smaller states and how will the reservation work where there are only one or two Lok Sabha seats? How would they ensure the S.C and S.T reservation? There is also no clarity on what basis the seats will be reserved.

What is the fallout of the bill? First of all, political equations have changed now in both the houses. RJD, BSP, SP and even Trinamool Congress have not supported the bill, which means the UPA allies are not in tact. RJD and SP have withdrawn their support to UPA. This will make majority of the UPA very fragile. It also means that for the passing of every bill, the government has to mobilise the numbers, which is tricky. The government will have to depend on free-floating individuals like Jaswant Singh, Jaya Prada, Digvijay Singh and others.

The other danger is that the RJD and SP are talking about bringing a no- confidence motion against the government even before the Finance Bill is passed. In such an event, what would be the position of the left parties and the BJP? No doubt, they have extended full support to the women's bill. But will it be extended to other things as well? As opposition, will they be in a position to support the government at the time of the no-confidence motion?

The regrouping will spell disaster to the UPA, as it now has to deal with not only the opposition but also with its own allies on every issue. Despite being a minister and party to decisions, Railway Minister Mamata Banerjee has thrown tantrums often.

Also, the bargaining power of the smaller parties and individuals will increase in view of the fact that government may woo them for every bill.

The Government will also have to work overtime to get the women's bill passed in the Lok Sabha. This is going to be difficult because there are more vocal leaders like Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh in the Lok Sabha and their parties are also strong. To bring order in the house will be much more difficult. Although the House of Elders has passed the bill, actually it is the Lok Sabha members who will be affected by it. With almost every party except the left having divided opinion on the bill, it will be a question mark. Moreover, the government may not bring the bill to the Lok Sabha before the Finance bill is passed as the Government's majority in the house after the departure of SP and RJD has become thin.

More importantly, the Muslims are not happy with the reservation as they think that it may only bring the “begums” to the legislatures and not the poorer class. This may or may not be true but the Muslim MPs had even met the Prime Minister and conveyed their fears on Tuesday. The Muslim factor is very much there and the Congress is in danger of losing their support. This has to be addressed by the party managers.

Moreover, the JD (U) seems to have been affected as five party MPs have voted for the bill while JD (U) President Sharad Yadav is opposed to it. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who supports the bill, may break away form JD (U) and launch his own party. This means danger for the BJP as the party is in a ruling coalition with Nitish in Bihar.

As for the bill itself, it is not clear in what shape it will ultimately emerge because the Lok Sabha can bring amendments or can even throw it out. The Yadav trio is said to be talking about bringing down the percentage of reservation from 33 per cent to 20 per cent. There are also reservations about the rotation of constituencies, which is opposed by many.

However, by and large, the bill with all its lacunae may be the beginning of a new hope for women who have been oppressed and denied their rightful share in decision making. Now it is for the political parties to bring meritorious women to the legislatures and Parliament. There are 12 lakh women heading panchayats in the country. At least a few of them should find their way to the legislatures. Only then will the churning be complete. (IPA Service)