What is significant is that the announcement came when the Russian president Vladimir Putin is hosting the new German chancellor Olaf Scholz in Moscow with a bit of a fanfare. The treatment to the German chancellor stands in sharp contrast to downright rough handling of UK foreign minister and even the French president by the Russian diplomatic establishment.

In a joint press statement of the visiting British foreign minster with the Russian one, the host left the conference venue abruptly with the observation in response to journalists query that the dialogue was between the “mute and a deaf”. The visiting dignitary was then left to face the music. Giving the importance to Germany in diplomatic parleys over this heightened threat in Europe is a clear effort at braking up the show of Western unity in Europe Union’s stand against the threat from Moscow.

Only a week back, as French president Emmanuel Macron was visiting Moscow in an unilateral effort to defuse tensions, Putin has flared up in a joint press conference with him. Putin had used the most foul language against Ukraine, and particularly its president, on abiding by the Minsk agreement. That was an affront to the French president and his parleying for peace in the eastern borders of EU when France is becoming its president for the next six months.

On the other hand, Olaf Scholz is the new German chancellor, replacing Angela Merkel, who had a pre-eminent position in European diplomacy and in relation to Russia. Merkel had in a way molly-coddled Russia and Putin while she pursued the direct natural gas pipeline for carrying urgently needed fuel for Germany and broader Europe.

That is in dire interest of Germany as well as Europe. However, it is also a lifeline for Russia. Selling natural gas and oil is a prime condition for Russian solvency and these provide the much needed vitamin supplies to the country’s emaciated economy. One has to remember Russia had notched up a foreign exchange war chest of over $600 billion with energy sales and exports.

Russian manufacturing industry has collapsed since the days of opening up its economy following the crash of the Soviet communist system. Its only saviour in the current circumstances is the export of fuel and energy items. The revenues from these exports allows Russia meet urgent imports.

Russia’s quarterly earnings on gas and oil exports runs roughly to $250 billion. The new pipeline, being built mainly on the back of steadfast support from Germany, offers a permanent income stream for Russia. Hostilities over Ukraine would have ended that bonhomie over the Nordstream 2 pipeline and ended the kind of income certainty that Russia dearly is looking forward to.

US president Biden had directly hinted at this possibility in his telephone conversations with president Putin. Germany would have been helpless to pursue the pipeline ini the face of EU opposition to it after a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Hence, a de-escalation of the crisis when the new German chancellor Scholz is his diplomatic iniatives, gives a special status to Germany and its new chancellor. Chancellor Scholz strait away gets a nodal position in European affairs at the same time Russia preserves its core interests.

President Putin’s aggressive position on Ukraine had in fact unwittingly painted himself into a corner where he was looking for a face saving escape clauses from the impasse. German chancellor’s visit had provided him that vital escape route. But then, why did the Russian president did not accept the olive branch that Monsieur Macron had extended with some French flair? There are two aspects to this.

First, by the time the French president was visiting the fear of the Russian bear had not really peaked. After all, Russia did want that Eastern Europe and the western powers in Europe should live in a state of fear of Russia that should stall in any future expansion of the NATO in Russian satellite areas.

Russia had demanded formally that NATO should guarantee that no further expansion in eastern Europe should be allowed and NATO forces from eastern members should be withdrawn. Russia made demands, knowing fully well that these would not be accepted. However, the threat that Russia had delivered made it sure that the NATO expansion would not happen at least for the near future. After all, western Europe once again realised, along with the United States, that Russia still remains the only force which could match up to USA with its nuclear arsenal.

Hence, the Russian grievance of being insulted (after collapse of Soviet Union) and thrown out of the international strategic high table, had been fully avenged. USA and Europe had admitted that Russia presented a huge threat, when there hornets nests are stirred. Western triumphalism, immediately in the wake of the Soviet collapse, had received a rude jolt. This is what Russian diplomatic foray was all about.

In the end, if this would come as a huge setback and disappointment, it would be for the Chinese president Xi Jinping. President Xi Jinping had made a point to meet the Russian president Putin in the forefront to the inauguration of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, demonstration a special relationship. President Xi had been watching the Ukraine crisis, as a proxy for his moves on Taiwan. If president Putin had nonchalantly carried off his Ukraine aggression, it would have made a case for president Xi’s invasion of Taiwan. The way Ukraine crisis had turned, Xi’s options are narrower and more restricted.

This is a good ending for India too. Putin’s withdrawal from Ukraine face-off lays ground for a more consensus based international order than one which is run only with a show of force. That is good for Indo-China relations. (IPA Service)