The month of January 2022 data released by CMIE revealed that 6.6 million people just moved out of the job market. Why? They were too disappointed to even search for a job, because there were no jobs in the market. Thus they were virtually pushed out of the job market. And then they even went out the counting system that simply stopped counting them as unemployed. Thus the number of unemployed in the country reduced which in turn reduced the unemployment rate. It is against the belief of the unsuspecting innocent people who are misled to believe that a decline is unemployment rate means improvement in employment situation. Rather in case of January 2022 situation, employment situation worsened on the ground but unemployment rate declined. The Centre has been using this decline in the unemployment rate and brazenly telling the country that employment opportunities were on the rise.

Even Union Minister of Labour and Unemployment Bhupender Yadav claimed on February 12 that employment opportunities were on the rise in the country while speaking at the 187th meeting of the ESIC in Gurugram, Haryana. To support his claim he cited the recent survey reports of the Quarterly Employment Survey and EPFO paroll data. He also said that the Union government under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is committed for the welfare of the workers and labourers in both organized and unorganized sectors. Why the Minister ignored the frightening situation in the labour market in January 2022 and claimed contrary to the ground reality will not remain a mystery, if the government propaganda is taken into consideration that is pushing for labour reforms by implementing the four controversial labour codes in the coming financial year 2022-23, which central trade unions call anti-labour and pro-corporate and are agitating against it for a long time.

Now let us have a look at the January 2022 data relating the job market in India. The unemployment rate fell by 1.3 per cent despite 6.6 million went out of the job market suffering from great disappointment due to non-availability of jobs. People quitting the job market brought the unemployment rate down to 6.6 per cent compared to 7.9 per cent just a month ago in December 2021. The unemployment rate fell without increase in employment. The quantum of employment remains a challenge even in the current month, the CMIE analysis has said though there was a shift towards better quality jobs last month.

Not only that the total employment in India in January 2022 shrunk by 3.3 million. Even the employment rate dropped from 37.6 per cent in December to 37.2 per cent in January. The labour force participation in January 2022 was also fell to 39.9 per cent compared to 40.9 per cent in December. The stress prevalent in the job market last month was clearly felt by the people while the Centre claimed better job opportunities.

This stress continues in February 2022. In the first week ending on February 6, employment rate went even down from the already lower level of employment rate of 37.6 per cent to 36.4 per cent. Then next week ending on February 13 also it was only 36.6 per cent, worse than the January level.

Salaried jobs in 2019-20 were 86 million which had come down to 77 million in November and December 2021. In January 2022 it stood at 83 million which but still less by 3 million compared to 2019-20 level.

Sector wise analysis shows that agriculture sector shed 2.5 million jobs in January while 6.6 million people became out of job from the services sector. Industry has improved by adding 5.8 million jobs out of which 1.8 million jobs were added in manufacturing. Manufacturing had even added 1.4 million jobs in December 2021. About 1.2 million jobs were added in mines and utilities, and 2.8 million in construction. Thus the industry employed 67.5 million people in the country in January 2022. Industry as a whole fared well in employing people compared to 61 million before the pandemic in 2019-20, but manufacturing still employed only 32 million in January 2022 compared to 41 million in 2019-20. “Reaching the 41 million mark seems extremely difficult,” says CMIE analysis, “since this would require massive investments into creation of new capacities and conditions are not conducive for that around now.”

The unemployment this month is even worse than the last month as the CMIE data shows. As on February 17, 2022, unemployment rate has already risen to 7.55 per cent from 6.57 per cent in January 2022 that had dropped due to not counting 6.6 million people going out of the job market. Rural unemployment has become worse which has risen from 5.84 per cent last month to 7.46 per cent now, though urban unemployment rate seems to have marginally declined from 8.16 per cent in January 2022 to 7.73 per cent on February 17, 2022.

Modi government thus needs to read the mathematical fallacy of the data, and take urgent action taking note of the frightening unemployment level on the ground and stop misleading people that job opportunities are on the rise. (IPA Service)