The landmark legislation advancing gender equity was strongly supported by BJP and the Left parties and non-UPA parties such as AIADMK. But there are still hurdles to cross, mainly the Lok Sabha where the leaders of SP and RJD Mulayam Singh and Mr Lalu Prasad, have vowed to fight the bill to the last. On Monday they prevented the House from transacting the business of the day while letting their partymen in the Upper House indulge in unruly scenes. The latter tore the bill to shreds as soon as it was tabled in the Rajya Sabha by Law Minister Veerappa Moily and moved threateningly toward the Chairman, snatching his mike. The House adjourned amidst chaos.

Shocked and demoralized as the Government was, the Prime Minister held a series of meetings with party leaders overnight but it was finally the Congress President and UPA Chairperson, Ms. Sonia Gandhi, who gave a decisive push advising Government to take the “huge risk” and get a vote, come what may. It paid off. Later, a beaming Ms. Gandhi expressed gratitude to BJP, Left and other parties for extending their wholehearted support for “a great step forward”. The bill has to go before Lok Sabha at an opportune moment considering the stakes involved and it needs to be ratified by at least half of the state assemblies.

Both Samajwadi Party and RJD have announced withdrawal of support and reduced the zone of comfort for the Government, which has now a slender majority of its own. Already, the budget proposals on petroleum products followed by the hike in petrol/diesel prices are stoutly opposed by BJP, Left and other parties which are likely to press cut motions at the stage of the Finance Bill discussion, when the House reassembles after a few weeks' recess.

Meanwhile, Government has to get an interim appropriation for the first four months of the fiscal year, after the general debate on the budget while the House has to vote on the Railway Budget for 2010-11 as well. The Railway Minister Ms. Mamata Banerjee, in a sulk, asked her two Trinamool members in Rajya Sabha to abstain in the voting on women's bill. Apparently her grouse was against the Congress seeking Left support, given her electoral calculations in West Bengal next year. Perhaps she was swayed also by the demand of some of the opposition parties for quotas for Muslims and Dalits and other backward classes within the 33 per cent quota for women proposed in the bill.

Politically, the Government landed itself in a mess in December with the Home Minister's brusque midnight announcement on formation of a separate state of Telangana. Its disastrous consequences have played themselves out. More is in the offing once the Sri Krishna Commission completes its work hopefully by the end of the year. The Home Minister has on his hands the biggest internal security challenge from Maoists who are determined to wage a war against Government and already control huge swathes of territory across several states.

Neglect of basic issues such as land, food and means of livelihood for the vast mass of poor, particularly in the tribal regions has characterised governance in general over the last decade. It is one thing to announce path-breaking reforms and flagship programmes but quite another to match them with ground realities and ensure that services promised to the aam admi are delivered. We are more preoccupied with GDP numbers.

UPA-II can no longer feel comfortably placed in relation to its earlier five-year hold on power. There are growing signs of the changing game of numbers. It cannot therefore take for granted its own “absolute majority”. The post-election (2009) euphoria has now dissipated and the swagger in some of the Ministers presuming to enjoy the utmost confidence of the Prime Minister in whatever they were pronouncing would also come to an end.

Government will now have to tread warily to avert confrontations with a rejuvenated opposition with which it has repeatedly clashed over the food price inflation, a vital issue affecting millions of people, urban and rural. It is sheer complacency that led leaders of Government to ignore or deal with it casually. Apparently, Government would not recognise inflation until the WPI index crosses double digit. For the people at large, it is the consumer prices that matter in their everyday lives. Even WPI is uncomfortably close to 9 per cent.

Rather than tackle the problem seriously in credible fashion, attempts on the part of Government have been to play down the price explosion as a matter of no great consequence. Arbitrary two-month deadlines for prices to fall were set and these deadlines were getting extended. Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar has distanced himself from responsibility foisted on him within Government. It is the “fair deal” given for farmers that has pushed prices, which, according to him, have already come down.

It was only at later stages there was grudging acceptance of the unacceptable level of food prices and the need to bring them under control. Otherwise, the constant refrain was Government had enough stocks to ensure food security. This has had no effect on the soaring prices. To relate it entirely in terms of monsoon failure or international commodity prices was to indulge in equivocation. Price statistics (WPI and CPI) clearly show how food articles' had been rising since the last quarter of 2008, which had nothing to do with the earlier boom in commodity prices. Our food prices were rising when international food prices had tended to soften.

In the changing political scenario, it would become necessary for the Government to build a consensus to go ahead with many of the policies spelt out in the budget, apart from financial sector and other reforms to be legislated upon. On disinvestment and subsidy issues, the TMC and DMK, partners in Government, have struck a note of discord. A demand for a re-look at the extension of service tax to some of the services or the withdrawal of exemption in some sectors like air passenger transport, airport services, transport of goods by rail has come from concerned Ministers.

Now that the Centre has decided it could no longer bear huge oil subsidies or keep on issuing bonds to oil marketing companies, the decision on the Parikh Committee report on market-based pricing of petroleum products has become urgent and crucial. Overall, unless macro-economic variables are deftly handled, there would be neither 8.5 per cent growth nor price stability in the coming year. (IPA Service)