It is not as if Ms Banerjee underestimates the threat she faces on her home turf. “They have altered the very profile of the seat,†she complained to the media, referring, not to the Delimitation Commission, but to the CPI (M).
Her opponents are aware of her predicament, too. Says Subhas Chakravarty, Minister for Transport, “Let her retain her own seat first, I would not be surprised if there is an upset.â€
Delimitation or not, few share Chakravarty' take. “I certainly would be surprised if Ms Banerjee loses,†says Charubrata Ray, political observer. So would most others. Left circles hoped that with her own survival at stake, Ms Banerjee, the biggest crowd puller in the opposition, would remain bogged down in South Kolkata and not campaign vigorously elsewhere.
Nothing of the sort happened. She has been campaigning as stridently as before and all over West Bengal, too.
In 2004, she had won 50.93% of the aggregate vote, against leading challenger Mr. Rabin Deb (CPI-M) whose share was over 38%. Ms Nafisa Ali on a Congress ticket won over 60,000 votes within an electorate of 1096709. This time, there is no Congress thanks to a seat adjustment in the non-left camp.
But the figures could well be different this time. Parts of new assembly seats have been tagged on to South Kolkata. Three of the assembly seats are held by TMC candidates in the assembly, (Rashbehari, Behala West and Ballygunge).
On the other hand, the Behala (East) seat and a part of Kasba and Garden reach have been added, as parts of south Kolkata went to other constituencies. Now Kasba falls under Dhakuria, an assembly seat held by the RSP while the CPI(M) won at Behala East.
While these remain glitches the TMC must overcome, the party is confident that its high profile pro-minority campaign__ Ms Banerjee is frequently pictured as offering namaz at Muslim gatherings like any devoted Muslim lady --- will help her carry the new voters in the Kolkata port areas.
Mr. Rabin Deb, who has been carrying out an energetic campaign, had his reservations about winning against the most powerful opposition leaders of West Bengal, according to party insiders. However, the CPI(M)'s aggressive pro-industry campaign, coupled with the TMC's negative agitation that drove out the Nano small car project from Singur, is expected to swing some middle class votes to the left.
In comparison, Union Minister Pranab Mukherjee faces an easier task at Jangipur, Murshidabad. Winning for the first time a Lok Sabha seat fairly late in his career in 2004, Mr. Mukherjee has quietly but effectively helped implement several important projects in the constituency. The adjustment with the TMC has also helped and after some problems, his equation with the most powerful Congress leader of the area, fellow MP Mr. Adhir Choudhury, is working satisfactorily again.
In any case Murshidabad, with its high minority population, has been a Congress stronghold. By his own admission, this would be Mr. Mukherjee's last bid for the Lok sabha. In the unwritten convention that prevails among major parties, generally the left front does not put up string candidates against those with whom it enjoys a good rapport. This is a courtesy that the non-left opposition reciprocated, when men like Somnath Chatterjee fought from Bolpur. Odd that such conventions till survive? But then voting in West Bengal has never been the same as voting an any other state in India. The size of the electorate: 1087054.
A word about campaign styles and themes: This time a major bane of the non -left opposition's campaign has been its total negativity, descending to the level of personally abusing left leaders. And some in the left camp too have used similar language. At least the left campaign makes ritual mention of national issues like foreign policy and the general economy. The Congress-TMC combine, along with its new loyal band of intellectuals, does nothing but CPI (M) bashing, whether over bad administrative performance or the heat wave. One wonders whether this will not prove counter productive in the long run.#
India: General election 2009
West Bengal: The sailing is not smooth for Mamata
It is easier for Pranab Mukherjee
Ashis Biswas - 04-05-2009 09:44 GMT-0000
KOLKATA: For all her unpredictability, Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee remains a doughty fighter who does not yield an inch to her opponents. In 2009, despite a mild anti-left wave, individually she has a tougher battle on her hands: South Kolkata, the constituency she represents, has undergone a sea change following delimitation.