What this backtracking suggests is that the Congress is not as confident as before about the fate of the bill. For a start, an all-party meeting is almost always an excuse for shelving an issue because of the difficulty of reaching a consensus. Given the gulf between the two sides - the Congress, the BJP and the Left on one side, and the Mandal group on the other - over the latter's demand for a quota within a quota, it will not be easy to reach an agreement.

If there is no consensus, the Congress may well regret the earlier rejoicing because of its inability to project the bill as a major achievement of UPA II. What is more, the Yadavs have queered the pitch for the Congress by raising the issue of Muslim representation in addition to their demand for quotas for the OBCs and Dalits. While the Congress can argue that these communities will be well represented in Parliament even without a special quota for them, the same cannot be said of the Muslims.

Yet, as is known, the Congress is extra sensitive about the minorities because it is trying to recover the ground it lost because of the Babri masjid demolition. The surprisingly satisfactory performance that it put up in U.P. in the parliamentary polls had convinced it that the Muslims were returning to the party, presumably because of Mulayam Singh's dalliance with Kalyan Singh. But if the Yadavs are able to successfully press the point about quotas for Muslims, the Congress will be in a quandary.

Since the UPA I had several achievements to its credit - RTI, NREGS, the nuclear deal - it was expected that UPA II would fare even better, not least because it would not have the Left breathing down its neck. That it has a greater sense of assurance is evident from its refusal to roll back the fuel price hike despite pleas from allies like the DMK and Trinamool Congress. It is also likely to push through some of its disinvestment plans which were held up earlier because of objections not only from the communists but also from the DMK and Trinamool Congress.

But the uncertainty about the women's bill may dent the government's and the Congress's confidence. Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi will also be worried about the growing proximity between the BJP and the Left. The camaraderie which these two groups forged on the nuclear deal in the last days of UPA I has continued this year as well. Normally, the UPA II's bigger majority should have given it some kind of a cushion. But it may have to worry not only about the informal alliance between the BJP and the Left, but also the fact that other disgruntled elements like Lalu Yadav, Mulayam Singh and Mayawati may join the saffron and red camps to needle the government.

The Congress's only consolation is that, for the moment, the DMK and Trinamool Congress have fallen in line, the first because of its internal problems caused by the impending succession struggle between heir apparent M.K. Stalin and aspiring pretender M.K. Alagiri. At a time like this the aging patriarch, M. Karunanidhi, is unlikely to rub the Congress the wrong way, especially when Jayalalithaa has sent out feelers for a reconciliation with the Congress. Mamata Banerjee, too, has evidently decided against throwing further tantrums because she knows that she cannot win in West Bengal without the Congress by her side.

But even as these two allies have quietened down, one can sense the uneasiness among parties like the NCP probably because of Sharad Pawar's realization that the hopes with which he had walked out of the Congress were unlikely to be fulfilled. While someone like Mamata Banerjee, who also left the Congress, has become a major force in West Bengal, Pawar's party has lost ground even in Maharashtra. The NCP leader is too proud, however, to merge his own party in the Congress as was suggested after the parliamentary polls.

The only consolation for the Congress as it prepares to observe the 1st anniversary of UPA II in May is that its two major opponents - the BJP and the Left - do not pose much of a threat outside Parliament because neither Nitin Gadkari nor Prakash Karat is likely to infuse new life into their moribund organisations in the foreseeable future. (IPA Service)