If Mamata Banerjee can adopt an accommodative attitude towards BJP, then it is not something uncommon for Nitish, an ally of NDA, to soften his approach and attitude towards PM. In his determination to make Nitish desist from floating a new alliance with Tejashvi, ( leader of RJD), Modi also deputed his ministerial colleague Dharmendra Pradhan to talk to Nitish and explore the possibilities. Pradhan has already called on Nitish twice in a month. This has simply strengthened the speculation that his bonhomie with the opposition RJD is on the decline. Nitish is like a fish who cannot survive out of water. In Nitish’s case it is political power.

RJD in principle was not opposed to accept his condition and install him as the chief minister, but the assurance from Pradhan, the special emissary of Modi that Nitish would continue to remain the chief minister till the next Assembly polls which will take place in 2025, made him rethink about Modi’s proposal to dump RJD.

Pradhan, after his meeting with Nitish told the media: “There is no deadlock between us (BJP and JDU) — everything is smooth. We have said this at public forums as well. At times, political parties differ on certain matters, in a democratic manner.” Commenting on the recent war of words between the BJP and JD(U) leaders Pradhan said, “We will go by the public mandate — Nitish Kumar will remain the CM till 2025 and he is the NDA leader (in Bihar).”

The visit comes within a week of Modi calling Nitish and briefing him about the decision to make Draupadi Murmu the NDA’s Presidential candidate. It is worth mentioning that of late Nitish differed with BJP on several issues, including population control measures and the Agnipath short service recruitment scheme for defence forces.

The bitterness between Nitish and Modi had reached to such a level that Nitish did not use police force effectively to curb the agitation of the youths against the Agnipath scheme. Bihar saw the worst damage to the railway property. Young protesters burnt around 9 trains, vandalised railway property, blocked traffic and attacked BJP offices, and houses of its state leaders.

But it was a call from Union home minister Amit Shah that changed the scenario overnight. If the sources are to be believed Shah had threatened him with imposition of President’s rule. Obviously this threat meant his government would be dismissed. This made Nitish to fall in the line. This call from Shah also did not provide enough time-frame to Nitish to float the alternate forum.

His adopting a passive approach to the agitation simply underlined that he was reluctant to help Modi. Interestingly Nitish took the threat seriously. State became active. Police went out fully prepared and in large numbers and even countered people indulging in arson, vandalism and stone pelting, and the situation came under control within a day.

Nitish in his two meetings with Pradhan had expressed severe dismay and concern at the manner in which the Bihar BJP leaders criticised him and his JD(U) in recent months. He also pointed out that the BJP leaders were behaving erratically giving the impression that they have been instructed by their central leaders to resort to this nature of politics. Responding to the need of the time Pradhan advised the state BJP leaders to maintain restraint.

A bitter war of words had broken out between the ruling allies, the BJP and Kumar’s Janata Dal (United). “We are also in the government, but we felt that some people deliberately kept quiet to bake their bread in the flames coming out of our party offices. Our top leaders were very angry,” lamented a senior BJP leader from Bihar. He asserted that Kumar avoided president’s rule by a whisker. Nitish, though, is still silent on the issue.

The visits of Pradhan, though undertaken at the instruction of Modi, conveys the strong message that Modi does not intend to antagonise the Dalits, mahadalits and SC. Obviously for this reason Modi would like to face the 2024 Lok Sabha election in alliance with JD(U). Any action against Nitish at this stage would prove to be like committing Hara-kiri. Unfortunately Nitish instead of becoming a martyr preferred to listen to the threats of Shah. During Pradhan’s visit one development that nonetheless emerged in a more aggressive manner was the plan of Modi to project Union MoS Nityanand Rai as possible CM candidate for 2025 Bihar assembly election. Evidently Modi does not intend to bear Nitish as the chief minister in case the NDA wins the 2025 election. But it is still a long way to go. Modi needs Nitish Kumar as his ally now.

There is no denying the fact Nitish has been caught in his own web. By refusing to toe the diktats of Modi and Shah he could have attained the status of leader of the Dalits and extremely poor. Projecting Murmu has been the part of Modi’s game plan to reach out to this section of the population. By supporting and allowing them to dictate him, Nitish has opened a new game. Adivasis do not have significant presence in Bihar. In fact this section is the supporter of the left and secular forces. By extending support to Murmu, he has helped the BJP to make a dent in this section of the population.

There could be reshuffle of BJP ministers in the alliance government in Bihar and “non-performing ministers” could be replaced with new faces. Modi government has laid out another trap to immobilize Nitish by suggesting that each district of Bihar would have smart localities named ‘Modinagar’ and ‘Nitishnagar’ to provide residential land to the poor. With these assurances in his kitty Nitish is raring to support Murmu. The NDA’s decision to pick a member of the tribal community as its contender is seen as a masterstroke of Modi. (IPA Service)