PM Narendra Modi had got the Code on Wages passed in the Parliament of India before the pandemic in 2019. Central rules were subsequently framed for their immediate implementation in which he did not succeed because labour is in concurrent list of the Constitution of India that also needed framing of rules by the States and UTs of the country. In the meantime, COVID-19 struck the country, and general lockdown of the country was announced on March 24, 2020. When the workforce of the country struggled for their survival with no jobs and no earnings, Modi government finding them weakened and not in a position to oppose, got three other codes – Code on industrial relations, Code on Social Security, and Code on Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions passed in 2020 from the Parliament.

These were initially planned to be implemented at one go from December 2020 which was shifted to April 2021, but could not be implemented because they needed rules to be framed by the states and UTs too, that were busy in handling COVID-19 emergencies. Moreover, employers were also not ready for the new rules. The deadline was subsequently deferred to July-August 2021, October 2021 and them April 2022 that too the Centre missed because the states were still not ready with their rules. Union Ministry of Labour and Employment said in March that draft rules on Code on Wages were pre-published by 27 states and UTs while, Code on Social Security by 23, Code on Industrial relations by 21, and Code on Occupational Safety by 18. An official of the Ministry was quoted saying that all the rules would be ready by July. It was therefore understood that the Centre was planning to roll out series of rules under the four labour codes from July 1, a perceived deadline that was missed again for future uncertain deadline.

The latest status of the four codes made by subsuming 29 existing labour laws is that only 30 states and UTs have framed rules so far relating to Code of Wages, 25 under Code on Induastrial relations, 24 under Code on Social Security, and 23 under Code on Occupational Safety, health and working conditions. There are altogether 36 states and UTs in the country, and 13 of them are not ready with the rules on Code on Occupational Safety, Health and Working conditions, 12 under Code on Social Security, 11 under Code on Industrial relations, and 6 under Code on Wages. It was under these circumstances, the Centre deferred their implementation fearing backlash in several states, even though the Centre has already finalized their rules on all the four codes and vigourously pursuing with states and UTs for framing of their rules.

Ever since the passage of the Codes in the Parliament of India, CTUs have been agitating with several successful movements including sit-in protest, rallies, and even all India blockade. Authorities at the centre are therefore weighing pros and cons of the approach to be adopted regarding implementation of the codes at one go, or rolling out the series of rules in various phases. The major challenge of implementing them at one go, when all the states and UTs will be ready with their own rules, will be their acceptability in their entirety by not only the workforce and their trade unions, but also by the employers, because both of them are not seemingly ready for the change. If the codes are implemented one by one, they will get much longer time to be introduced in the country.

Having assumed the power for second term in 2019, PM Modi had got the Code on Wages passed within months, with an idea that he had five years to rule. The three other Codes were subsequently passed in 2020 with 4 years left to rule the country. It was presumed that he would have enough time to overcome the backlash. However, almost two and half years are lost in the pandemic, and Modi government has only one and half years in hand after which the general election process for 2024 would begin. It is too short a time to overcome the backlash that might have compelled the Modi government to have a second though on implementation of the codes.

The Code on Wages have become problematic because it will alter the wage structure which may reduce the take home salary of the workers on one hand and the increased financial burden on the employers on the other. In that case neither the workers nor their employers will be happy if enforced implementation. It would also affect all social security schemes for workers, provident fund, remuneration, bonuses, allowances and other incentives etc. Though the Centre says that it would have long-term benefits for both workers and employers, they don’t seem ready for the immediate short-term loss, because the COVID-19 crisis has broken their financial spine. They need immediate cash now, not in future as the Centre has been assuring them. There is a wide spread fear among the trade unions that the labour codes would introduce greater flexibility in rolling out short-term work contracts, make hiring and firing flexible, and make industrial strikes harder. Additionally, Majority of the companies are also not ready with resources and manpower for implementation of the codes right now.

The four days week is another controversial provision which, the workers fear, would bring untold exploitation. CTUs say that it would be devastating for informal and daily wage workers who have no social security coverage at this time. They will be hired and fired more easily in the name of paving the way for “ease of doing business.” The Code on industrial relation will not be applicable in the establishments having less than 300 workers which has been raised from the present requirement of 100. CTUs say that it amounts to refusal of the benefit of the industrial relations laws for majority of the 6.3 crore enterprises in the country, since only a few thousand enterprises employ over 300 workers. The rule of hire and fire puts workers in miserable conditions almost like modern day slavery. Though Code on Social security is to be implemented for gig and platform workers, it does not provide complete social security coverage to the workforce, and what is proposed is far less than required.

Since these four labour codes were brought without tripartite consultation with the stakeholders, and no session of Indian Labour Conference has been organized since 2015, these are viewed with great suspicion, which the CTUs allege to be anti-labour and pro-corporate. CTUs are preparing for next stage of stiff opposition and demanding rolling the codes back. Even the Economic Advisory Council of the Prime Minister had voiced its concern on the four labour codes last year which they felt need to be replaced for single code, since these codes had not taken all the discrepancies in the subsumed labour laws into consideration but simply made aggregation. Almost all the opposition political parties have opposed the codes, and are likely to support any agitation against the Modi government to derive political mileage before the Lok Sabha election 2024.

Thus the Modi government has no option left but to reassess the pros and cons of the Codes with special reference to political gains and losses in the Lok Sabha election of 2024. The discussions and deliberations on final contours of the four codes are still on and Union Ministry of Labour and Employment is in touch with states, industries, and other stake holders. Things have progressed so far but there is no immediate plan of rolling them out. A spokesman of the Union Ministry has said that ministry will make formal announcement when things are ready.