Knowledgeable sources go the extent of saying that the Congress will reverse the position this time by winning as many as 21 seats.

This calculation is based on two factors: first, the “wave” in favour of the Congress which enabled the party to win the December 2008 Assembly elections; second, the clean image of the present Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and the surprising unity among Congress factions in the state.

On the other hand, the BJP is a sharply divided house. The pro-RSS elements are not yet reconciled to the prime position Ms Vasundhara Raje Scindia continues to enjoy despite the electoral loss.

There are, however, certain factors which may prove disadvantageous to the Congress. The growing tussle between the Gujjars and the Meenas is one such factor.

The BJP has played its best card by nominating Kirori Singh Bainsla for the Tonk seat. Though the Gujjar movement has been split into two, the influence that retired colonel Bainsla wields among Gujjars may upset Congress calculations.

The Meena have also been divided into two camps: one led by K. L. Meena and the other by Namonarayan Meena (Congress).

The fact is that both Congress and the BJP have played tricks to create divisions in the two major castes for electoral gains. An additional player in this game is the Gujjar leader from Jammu, Qamar Rabbani, who seems to be quite popular despite being an outsider in Dausa. Rabbani has been trying to win the sympathy of Gujjars by helping families in need of help.

The Congress is, understandably, happy about the emergence of the Rabbani factor, as it might erode the base of the rival camp.

The Congress is also expecting that the rural areas will stand by the party. It is an acknowledged fact that the National Rural Employment Guarantee scheme has worked well in Rajasthan. Similarly, the loan-waiver scheme introduced by the UPA Government at the Centre has won the support of farmers in Alwar and other parts of the State. Though the schemes were launched during the Vasundhara regime, the Congress is dwelling on the fact that the projects were funded by the Congress-led Government at the Centre. This will help women, especially in villages and in many tribals areas, where women are the real wage-earners.

The Congress poll managers also hope that this time, many young first-time voters will favour the Congress and the relatively young Chief Minister.

Though the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has also fielded candidates, it does not command much influence in the state. In other words, the Mayawati factor won't matter much in the state. (IPA)