The remaining rounds of polling are crucial for both the fronts. While the UPA has higher stakes in the next two rounds, the NDA is looking for bonus seats. The BJP is quite optimistic of forming the next government; the optimism stems from its own internal exit polls and reports of improvement in U.P. But the Congress is pinning its hopes on the TINA (There is no alternative) factor.

The Congress is less upbeat now than it was a month ago. Much water has flowed under the Yamuna since the polls began. There were a few embarrassing revelations for the Congress including the revival of the memories of the 1984 riots and the Bofors controversy. The Varun Gandhi controversy has also hit the Gandhi family. Still, the Congress is hopeful of emerging as the single largest party; and in a best-case scenario, the party is hoping to win about 170 seats, according to its internal polls. However, Congress strategists are quite cautious in their optimism. As days pass by, they are becoming more and more apprehensive that they may need to get the support of other parties even if it emerges as the single largest party. This desperation was evident when AICC General Secretary Rahul Gandhi addressed his first major press conference in Delhi on Tuesday. Otherwise, why should he make overtures to the Left, Nitish Kumar and others?

What is the post-poll scenario for the Congress? Party strategists are busy computing the post-poll arithmetic; it has short-listed some new regional allies like JD (U), BJD, PMK and TRS. Rahul Gandhi let the cat out of the bag by praising Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, left parties and TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu. Insiders claim that the party is considering a proposal from AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa. The AIADMK chief's aim is to make sure that the DMK is not in power. To achieve this objective, she is willing to lend her support provided her conditions are fulfilled.

The top priority for the Congress is to get the support of left parties even if their strength comes down by half. As Rahul Gandhi put it in his press conference, the Congress knows it can do business with the left. The party's estimate is that the left parties may get 30 odd seats. This is not far from the estimate of the left's own expectation of around 40. The left may also not accept Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister.

The other problem will be how to deal with Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee, who will end her alliance with the Congress if it takes the support of the left. The Congress will have to choose between the TMC and the left. The left has, of course, rejected the overtures of Congress leaders including Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi. But in politics one can never rule out any possibility. In the name of keeping the BJP out, the left can always support a Congress-led government, the Congress believes. Also, Congress strategists know that there could be no third front government without the support of the Congress.

The Congress has already annoyed the LJP and the RJD with Rahul reaching out to the JD (U) publicly. The reaction from Paswan was quite sharp. The main problem for Nitish Kumar will be how to keep his government, which is dependent on the BJP for survival, going. A third front government would suit him better than a Congress-led one. The BJD will also have a problem in lending support to the Congress at the Centre as its survival in Orissa depends on anti-Congressism. The SP and BSP may also go for hard bargain and the Congress may have to choose one of them. Both would like to extract the maximum price.

The Congress is happy about the response from the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS). Encouraged by the reports from the Telangana region, TRS chief Chandrashekhar Rao made a dash to New Delhi to open channels of communication with both the Congress and the BJP. His support may be needed not only for a government at the Centre but also in Andhra Pradesh if there is a hung assembly. The PMK has a track record of going with the winner.

The question is: What is the alternative if the Congress is unable to form the government? Will it sit in the opposition? Secondly, for the sake of power, will the Congress change its Prime Ministerial candidate if the left insists? The key is in Rashtrapathi Bhavan, but the Congress is confident that the President would be helpful. (IPA Service)