Only eighteen months are left for the next Lok Sabha elections and that way Nitish has been able to bring some optimism in the thinking of the anti-BJP masses who want the saffrons to be defeated but are not getting any confidence in the state of preparedness of the opposition parties at the moment. The positive response received by Nitish Kumar to his appeal from all the opposition leaders including Rahul Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal should facilitate the process of forging a sort of unity of the political parties to take on the BJP and its allies in the coming Lok Sabha elections.

Apart from the Congress and the AAP leaders, the JD(U) supremo had talks with the NCP president Sharad Pawar, Samajwadi leaders Mulayam Singh Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav, JD(S) president H D Kumaraswamy, the CPI general secretary D Raja and the CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury. But his meeting with INLD chief Om Prakash Chautala and the Haryana leader’s endorsement of Nitish Kumar’s stand had special significance.

BJP got all the 10 Lok Sabha seats from Haryana in 2019 elections. Since then, the BJP’s strength has declined in the state. It will be important for the opposition to see whether it is possible for the Congress to have any understanding with the INLD to take on the BJP in Haryana.

Similarly, Nitish’s discussions with the CPI(ML) Liberation general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya have special significance. Bihar chief minister knows Dipankar’s role in helping the forging of Mahagathbandhan in Bihar before the 2020 assembly polls. The CPI(ML) got 12 seats in the assembly polls the largest among the three left parties. Dipankar can play a very important role in national level in organising the alliance of the anti-BJP parties before 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

The most important issue which has been cleared is that there is not going to be any third front, there will be only one front and that will include Congress. But this does not mean any electoral front. The anti-BJP electoral front will vary from state to state depending on the respective strength of the anti-BJP parties. The ground political reality in the states is so varied that any talk of total joint front of the opposition against the BJP in 2024 polls, will only spoil the efforts of minimum achievable unity before the polls.

The next important point is that there is no need for projecting any opposition leader as the Prime Minister candidate before the polls and the common minimum programme also can be drawn up after the 2024 poll results are out. The issues concerning PM candidate and CMP will be relevant only if there is a hung Parliament. If the BJP and its allies get majority again, all such exercises before the polls, will be futile.

Interestingly, for the opposition, some positive developments are taking place. The Bharat Jodo Yatra launched by the Congress from September 7 has the potential to generate big enthusiasm among the Congress masses and its cadres. After all, the Congress has a voting strength of minimum 20 per cent in the country's electorate. Similarly AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal is going ahead with his own programme for Making a Mahan Bharat aimed at exposing the BJP. Both can help in meeting the challenge of the BJP in the propaganda war currently on.

It is no coincidence that the BJP high command under Home Minister Amit Shah discussed the plan of action for 2024 Lok Sabha polls on September 6 and identified 144 seats for special focus which they lost in 2019 elections. They worked out the strategy on how to retrieve many of these losing seats. BJP is in a backfoot because it has lost most of its powerful allies in the Hindi-speaking heartland. Especially, the loss of JD(U) and the SAD has given a big jolt to the saffrons electorally. BJP's strategy is to keep the losses from its existing 303 seats at minimum and make up this loss from the gains from last year's losing seats. But this BJP strategy can be ably challenged by the opposition parties if they move with a flexible electoral strategy from state to state ensuring maximum mobilisation of anti-BJP votes in favour of the strongest opposition candidates in that state.

For opposition it will be wise for it to ensure that the strongest opposition party in each state, will be the decider of the nature of alliance in that state to take on the BJP. As of now, there are no problems in Bihar and Tamil Nadu. The opposition fronts are model front taking most of the anti-BJP parties. Such fronts can not be repeated in other states. The Congress is the major opposition party in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Himachal and Gujarat and it will have the main responsibility to fight BJP in these states. If the Congress feels it necessary to have alliance with smaller anti-BJP parties, its decision will be final.

In Karnataka, the Congress is the major opposition party but the JD(S) has good influence in some districts. It will be in the best interests of opposition unity if the Congress and JD(S) work together to take on BJP both in state assembly polls in 2023 and the Lok Sabha elections in 2024. Similarly in Jharkhand and Maharashtra, the Congress is an active part of the alliances and the party can fight BJP only through these alliances.

In Assam also, the Congress is the main opposition party and it will be in the best interests of the opposition if there is a total alliance against the BJP comprising Congress, Trinamool and the other anti BJP regional parties as also the left. The defeat of the BJP is possible if such composite combination emerges in Assam.. For the opposition as a whole, the losing of power of the Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma is of crucial importance since his defeat will lead to the collapse of the BJP control of other North Eastern states.

In West Bengal and Kerala, the political scenario is very clear. In Bengal, Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee is sufficiently strong enough to take on BJP on its own. There is no question of any total anti-BJP alliance in Bengal including the Congress and the Left both of which continue to be marginal forces in the state. In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front will fight the Congress led UDF and whoever wins, belongs to the anti-BJP combination. However, there are new elements in Punjab political situation with the massive victory of the AAP in the last assembly elections. So for the coming Lok Sabha polls, AAP will be contesting all the 13 seats on its own and that might lead to some Congress losses.

Presently TRS led by K Chandrasekhar Rao is firmly with the anti-BJP opposition. He is even reconciled now to the idea of having the Congress as an ally in the anti-BJP opposition. But in Telangana, TRS will fight the Lok Sabha polls on its own against both the BJP and the Congress. Similarly in Andhra Pradesh, YSRCP led by Jagan Mohan Reddy will fight both the Congress and the BJP. There is a possibility of BJP aligning with the TDP led by Chandrababu Naidu in the Lok Sabha polls. In Odisha, the BJD led by Naveen Patnaik will fight both the BJP and the Congress in the polls to maintain BJD’s regional domain.

In fact post 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the developments might have some similarities with the post 1996 Lok Sabha poll scenario. But there will be a crucial difference. Before 1996, the opposition parties fought as being anti-BJP and anti-Congress. The united front government was formed by the non-Congress parties keeping the Congress outside as a supporting party. In post 2024 Lok Sabha situation, it is possible that the Congress will be a very important part of the Government of the opposition, if BJP is defeated.

For Congress to bid for Prime Minister position of the opposition alliance, the decision will depend on the number of seats it gets as also its acceptability by other parties of the opposition. Apart, there is another crucial factor, if there is a hung Lok Sabha and the need for seeking support of the fence sitters like BJD and YSRCP becomes urgent, then their choice of future PM will also have a bearing on the selection of final PM candidate. The Congress has to make all out efforts to cross 100 seats in the next Lok Sabha polls as against its 2019 score of 52 if the Party wants to bid decisively for the PM’s position. (IPA Service)