Tejashvi Yadav, deputy chief minister and son of Lalu Yadav was absolutely correct in his assertion that to suggest that instead of talking of Congress’s retreating footprint across states, the opposition parties must come together at this point of national crisis and work to ensure the defeat of the rightist BJP. The opposition leaders must strive hard to forge a common front against the BJP for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections including the Congress.

This message coming from Tejashvi is clear and loud, as his party is destined to play a major role in the Hindi heartland to bring all the forces and groups opposed to Narendra Modi together on a single platform. He is already in touch with Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav. On his mission to explore the unity of the opposition parties, Nitish during his last Delhi visit had met Rahul Gandhi, Sharad Pawar, Sitaram Yechury, D Raja, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav and other opposition leaders. On his way back to Patna, Nitish had dropped clear hint that he would be meeting Sonia Gandhi once she returns from abroad.

The upbeat mood in the opposition circle was clearly evident from the banner that was on display at the SP headquarters in Lucknow with the slogan - “UP + Bihar = Gayi Modi Sarkar”, suggesting opposition unity will rout Modi government. This festoon also shows the zeal and determination of the opposition rank; they are willing to join hands for greater cause and presence of Congress would not be a stumbling poser.

Coming together of the opposition will have a major impact on the electorates. But otherwise too, it would be a tough proposition for the BJP to retain its existing seats in Bihar. There are 40 Lok Sabha constituencies in Bihar. In the last LS elections, BJP had won 17 seats, JD(U) 16, LJP 6, and INC 1. In UP the BJP had won 62 seats, BSP 10, SP 5, ADS 2, and INC 1. If the prevailing mood of the people is any indicator, it can safely be predicted that baring two seats the Mahagathbandhan led by Nitish will sweep the Lok Sabha election of 2024 in Bihar. In UP too, the BJP cannot be expected to do some magic. It would be a tough proposition for the BJP to retain the existing seats.

It is worth taking note that in 2022 election to UP assembly the BJP could manage to get 41.29 per cent. Its primary challenger, the Samajwadi Party (SP), witnessed a significant increase in both its seat tally and vote share. The SP, headed by former CM Akhilesh Yadav, secured 111 seats and 32.06 votes (47 and 21.82 per cent, respectively, in 2017) to emerge as the principal opposition party in the state. The BSP managed to get 13 per cent, Congress 2 per cent and RLD 3 per cent. With the opposition coming together the electoral scenario will change. It is significant that in the assembly election the BJP had lost 57 seats, down from 303 it had won in 2017. This will have impact on the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

The socio political scenario and alignment of the social forces have undergone a massive change in the current situation. If the BJP sources are to be relied, some senior leaders of the BJP and even of its allies are uncomfortable with the functioning of Amit Shah. A feeling is nursed by these leaders that Modi and Shah were unnecessarily goading them.

The BJP is not a major challenger to the Mahagathbandhan. But the only fear the allies nurse is Amit Shah may stimulate the communal feelings and try to play his divisive card during his two day visit to Seemanachal. Nevertheless Nitish and Tejashvi are firm in their assessment that the BJP and its allies will be losing most seats in Bihar in 2024. Tejashvi reiterated that the BJP will not only be convincingly defeated in Bihar, instead if all the Opposition parties unite then they will be successful in defeating it at all India level in the 2024 general elections.

It is now clear that Rahul, the much disparaged and sneered as Pappu, has succeeded in articulating the feelings of the common masses through Bharat JoduYatra. The Yatra as envisaged has rejuvenated the dying spirit amongst the Congress workers at the grass root level. Obviously it would be a tough proposition for any party to renounce the Congress claim of being the major partner of the opposition alliance.

Tejashvi has already sounded the note; “the Congress is still the largest Opposition party and other parties must recognise its relevance. We cannot wish away the fact that their numbers are higher than us in Parliament. Eventually, numbers will be the deciding factor, not statements. Others (parties) are mostly limited to their own states. So people will have to think practically and understand the situation”.

Only a couple of days back the prime mover of the unity, the Maharashtra stalwart Sharad Pawar also made it explicit during his stay in Delhi that Congress will be the fulcrum of the opposition unity to which even the left stalwarts are not averse. (IPA Service)