Ukraine has retaken 3000 square kilometres of land from the Russians and almost 10,000 Russian troops have fled the region in the most disorderly fashion, according to reports. The Russian rout in the Kherson region, cast broadest over the news media, have multiple implications.

It has destroyed the image of Russia as a major military power. The severe reverses have blown asunder all myths about Russian invincibility in war and its military might. Almost overnight, this is recasting relations in the backyard of Russia and in its areas of influence from Azerbaijan-Armenia to Uzbekistan in Central Asia.

The long persisting feud between Armenia and Azerbaijan had been brought to a close by an agreement dictated by Russia. Now that Russia looks wobbly, Azerbaijan has reasserted and started hostilities, with tacit backing from Turkey. Both Azerbaijan and Turkey are now far less respectful of Russia in the region than before.

On the other hand, in far off Central Asia, former CIS countries, which had by and large towed the Russian line in their diplomacy, are casting off that tilt. Uzbekistan is now keen to sell its hydrocarbon resources to countries which were so far been absent. These Central Asian countries are more disposed to take advantage of the European and other markets than merely supplying under Russia dictates.

China, meanwhile, is stepping its presence in Central Asia as a counterpoint to its adversarial role in South East Asia. China is holding the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation —SCO— in Uzbekistan where China, as the principal promoter of the concept, is going to dictate the agenda.

The Russia’s beating at the hands of a much smaller Ukraine has also become a liability for Chinese diplomacy. The more Russia gets weakened as a military power the less Washington would be bothered about it. In case of hostilities with Taiwan, US would thus be free to handle China without caring too much about Russia at the same time.

But setting aside, global diplomatic resetting, the Ukraine misadventure is becoming a serious domestic headache for Vladimir Putin.

The way Russian soldiers have run away from Ukraine battle grounds has unnerved the Kremlin. Internal l dissidents as well as ultra nationalist have become restive. The reverses have infuriated the Russian pro-war campaigners and this could be the last straw on the camel’s back for Vladimir Putin.

The Russian military garrisons set up in the eastern parts of the country, which were under Russian occupation for long, were found to be totally ill-trained to handle the highly organised and agile forces of Ukraine. It is now clear that the association of Ukraine military with American forces had made significant contributions to the win.

The Ukrainians had captured large stockpiles of weapons and ammunitions the Russian had maintained in key locations. All these are now lost to the Russians, even as they are facing shortages of ammunitions. The news about the helter-skelter in Ukraine was all the more galling for the Russian nationalists.

These news of severe reverses came hurtling down from news agencies in the midst of Moscow Day Celebrations in the capital last Sunday. Putin himself was inaugurating the highest ferris wheel in Europe and fireworks were being held as the news of the reverses were streaming in.

The critics of the government have even suggested that the authorities should have cancelled the highly visible functions in Moscow amidst the news of the losses.

This war is proving to be a test of strength between the Russians and the Americans in proxy. The US army is not providing any boots on the ground. But in every other way providing the back-up support, training and critical weapons to the Ukrainians.

Additionally, the intelligence inputs being constantly fed into the Ukrainians military planning set up is giving key advantages to the defenders. In fact, the Ukrainians are now turning out to be the offensive forces in the eastern theatres of the war.

The question that is being increasingly raised among war commentators and strategic experts is how would Russia be forced to react to the evolving situation in Ukraine and its defeat in the face of the Ukrainian offensive. The fear is that a totally humiliated and retreating Russia in Ukraine might try to do something drastic.

The reverses in the battles and Russian defeatist behaviour have particularly dented Putin’s image before his people. Until now, Putin was supposed to have restored Moscow’s image as a super power, after the liquidation of the Soviet Union.

Putin had personally projected himself as a strong man of Russia and a feared leader abroad. Now, that stands challenged.

The Russian right-wingers and strident nationalists are criticising the Russian leadership, particularly the defence ministry and the minister. There are those who are demanding a total shake up in the country’s defence set up. The reverses in Ukraine is now proving to be more of a domestic problem for Putin than only a loss or gain in Ukraine.

There are many who are drawing similarities between the Ukrainian rout with the sheer defeat faced by Russian in the Russo-Japanese war of 1905. The brunt of the defeat in war was borne by the then political establishment in the ensuing 1905 Revolution in Russia. That revolution had thrown out the autocratic government after 12 years in 1917.

The rumblings of frustrated extremist elements in the right wing factions are giving vent to their feelings with some open displays of dissatisfaction. Bloggers are suggesting and demanding changes in the way the war was being conducted. (IPA Service)