But there is no denying that economically backward Nepal is in the midst of a vibrant multi-act play on the world's political theatre.

The exit of the United Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) from the ruling coalition and the resignation of its founding chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda from the post of Prime Minister on 4 May will retard process of framing the Constitution by the Constituent Assembly as the draft Constitution document is likely to be influenced by feudal elements and royalists whom Dr Baburam Bhattarai, finance minister and UCPN(M) second-in command, characterised in the May Day speech as “counter-revolutionaries and feudalists”.

Apparently, the crisis erupted after the dismissal of Nepal's Chief of Armed Forces, General Rookmangud Katawal by Prachanda whose authority was repeatedly challenged by the CoAS. Interestingly, the only other communist ally in the coalition government, Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist), initially ticked off Prachanda's decision to fire General Katawal. But later on, the CPN(UML), effected an about-turn and joined hands with the royalist Sadbhawana Party, Nepali Congress, and two Madhesi parties - a rainbow coalition against UCPN(M) - and pulled out of the coalition immediately after dismissal of CoAS and his replacement by General Kul Bahadur Khadka.

Prachanda was apparently forced to sack the CoAS; he knew fully well the possible repercussions of such a move. General Katawal refused to quit and President Ram Baran Yadav repealed the order. That the crisis was in the making was clear from the statement made by Dr. Bhattarai before the May Day rally. The CoAS was defying the interim constitution and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement on discontinuance of the decade-long people's war in 2006. “If a soldier can be punished for not obeying his superior, why not a general? We will fire Katawal. We will not go back on this decision. We will transform the army, and involve it in development projects,” the Maoist leader said. Perhaps he couldn't anticipate that the President, originally belonging to the Nepali Congress, would humiliate the PM by reversing the dismissal of Army chief. Against the Maoists were two Madhesi parties which represent the Tarai Madhesi Democratic Party which along with the other Madhesi party won more seats than the CPN(UML) in directly-elected segment of the CA. So the UCPN(M) was left with no option but severance, especially after the volte-face by the CPN(UML), which got influenced by NC's smear campaign that the Maoists had prepared a blueprint for takeover of the army.

But the Maoists failed to reach out to the political parties, civil society, the professionals and various ethnic communities. Rehabilitation, development or reconstruction remain on paper even after three years. I saw this after visiting a rural area in eastern Nepal, affected by the Kosi floods in August-September last year. At least 34 people died in Nepal. We met CPN(UML) member of CA, Jagdish Kusiyet. Some people, claiming to be Maobadi sympathizers, in an inebriated state, were openly abusing Kusiyet of being dishonest, although he kept his patience. “An all party committee has been formed only recently” although Prachanda. Bhattarai and other ministers visited the area months ago. The sign of chaos is more than evident.

Donors and diplomats, interested in Nepal, have adopted a policy of wait and watch as the milieu is anything but sunny. Their expectation that the UCPN (Maoist) will behave democratically and tolerantly has been belied. But the aggressive posture of rank and file, politically naïve, is often exaggerated, said Shiv Narayan Yadav, UCPN(M) member of CA. But Maoists have largely failed to convince the people and the world that they are genuinely committed to establishment of a popular democracy.

UCPN(M)'s national congress is scheduled to take place by the year-end. Former Maoist MLA from Raj Biraj region, a central committee member and an ideologue Suryanath Prasad Yadav in a free-wheeling conversation with this correspondent at a guest house in Raj Biraj, eastern Nepal, said, “The debate between two lines has been healthily going on and the new politico-ideological document will be adopted there.”

Netra Bikram Chand 'Bilap', UCPN(Maoist) CC member openly admitted in an article in September last year that “Comrade Kiran” differed with Comrade Prachanda on the establishment of a democratic republic in Nepal. While Prachanda thinks that the situation is not conducive to advancing towards the People's Republic, and harps on a synthesis for a democratic republic. “Comrade Kiran disagreed with the programme of democratic republic, and put forward a written proposal for a People's Republic. Com. Kiran proposed that the “appropriateness of the democratic republic is over and the party should advance ahead towards the People's Republic.”

In all probability, UCPN(M) will formally drop “ Prachanda Path”, Maoists' bible during the violent days. A section of middle cadres, involved in inner-party debate, didn't like both Prachanda and Bhattarai joining the ministry. A labour leader who preferred to remain anonymous told this writer that within a fortnight after taking over as the PM, Prachanda and his wife went to Beijing when the Olympics was on. “They went to see the Olympiad, forgetting that thousands of poor people, our support base, were in chilling distress.”

Prachanda-Bhattarai's ideas like public-private partnership are under fire. A senior lecturer at King Tribhuvan University and a UCPN(M) ideologue has a different explanation. “We can't get rid of a dilemma directly imposed on us. The present Chinese model is rejected by us as it's essentially on neo-liberal line. But we can't help inviting even MNCs to invest. There lies the rub. Our struggle against hard conditionalities has grave limitations. But we have to move towards a new democracy based on different realities.”

The Progressive Nepali Forum in Americas (PNEFA) urged the Supreme Court to nullify President Yadav's unconstitutional action and restore civilian supremacy. The Supreme Court indeed asked the President why he reversed the PM's dismissal of CoAS. Constitutional experts back the President as Prachanda's decision was not approved by the Cabinet.

The future of Nepal is uncertain but the Maoists have a tougher task ahead. Maybe, the UCPN(M) can claim to have waged the largest popular struggle. But that cannot hide the fact that Prachanda had failed miserably. The party cannot assume that popular support will remain for ever. (IPA Service)