Massive aid pledges notwithstanding, Pakistan has mostly remained a reluctant defender of its own sovereignty, allowing a free run for Taliban who not only control the Swat valley enforcing Shariat law but keep making raids into territory closer to Islamabad.
Growing international concern over the safety of Pakistan's nuclear weapons and mounting US pressures have at last forced the Pakistan army to launch a counter-attack but it remains to be seen whether it has only limited objective of pushing the Taliban back into Swat valley or would regain control over it. The Obama administration had made no secret of its anxiety about the fragility of the elected government in Islamabad and its fears of a jihadist take-over, and warned that there would be no “blank cheque†unless Pakistan decisively moved against the Taliban insurgency.
The US Congress, currently considering a huge aid programme, insists on conditionality with benchmarks laid down to judge Pakistan's performance on both economic and security fronts. President Obama also told Pakistan plainly that its obsession with India being “the mortal threat†was “misguided†and its biggest threat came internally to Pakistan. He has repeatedly made it clear that the security interests of Pakistan, Afghanistan and the United States were inter-linked. For the present, the Obama Administration has gone with Islamabad on its assurance that Pakistan's nuclear weapons are fully safeguarded. In recent days, there was a flurry of high-level visits of US Generals and diplomats, besides the dialogue that the special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Mr. Richard Holbrooke has been having with Pakistan authorities.
For Pakistan, going through double-digit inflation, economic slowdown and balance of payments pressures, IMF did another rescue act toward the end of 2008 in committing 7.3 billion dollars on the basis of a “stabilisation programme†presented by Islamabad. It has since released two instalments, noting some progress on fiscal and other targets while waiving certain conditions. Along with his comprehensive strategy for the region, President Obama announced 1.5 billion dollars a year as non-military aid for five years and some three billion dollars in military assistance. The economic assistance is for resources to build schools and roads and hospitals and strengthen Pakistan's democracy, he said.
USA also led the international effort in support for Pakistan in the Tokyo meeting of “Friends of Pakistan†on April 17, which pledged around six billion dollars in economic assistance over the next two years. A bill in US Senate moved by Mr.John Kerry and Mr. Richard Lugar provides not only for tripling of the previous aid trends to 1.5 billion dollars annually for the next five years but also advocates an additional 7.5 billion over the subsequent five years. Both the World Bank and Asian Development Bank have also approved large loans, including concessional, all of which would make available to Pakistan 20-25 billion dollars over a five-year period providing strong support to its economy and external balances.
Pakistan knows that it cannot really count on aid pledges translating into resource flows unless it can demonstrate its internal stability and determination to stand up to the challenge to its existence from militant forces within its own borders. After repeated denials and compromises with Taliban, the army began an offensive when the militants occupied parts of Bunar district close to Islamabad. In the coming days, Pakistan will be judged on how much it could deliver on the ground instead of trotting out excuses or citing fears about India or anti-American feelings in the country.
President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton conferred with President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan and President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan in Washington on May 6 as part of a regular series of trilateral discussions to review military operations against terror groups along the border and the level of enhanced intelligence sharing and address economic issues of development, trade and energy. True to his form, President Zardari has been making statements which cannot be taken at face value because these do not necessarily have the backing at both government and military levels.
Ahead of the Washington meetings, Pak ambassador there came up with advice to Obama Administration to ask India to withdraw its troops from the Line of Control. Both the President as well as Prime Minister Gilani have been urging India to resume dialogue as one way of putting the lid on the follow-up to the 26/11 terror attacks in Mumbai from Pakistan, despite the mass of evidence given to them by India.
For Afghanistan, President Obama is committed to send 21,000 additional troops during the year to step up the offensive against terrorists and strengthen democracy in the war-torn country where peace has eluded for decades. President Karzai does not enjoy the requisite confidence of the Obama administration in view of widespread charges of corruption and maladministration against his government and Washington hopes that the August elections would be free and open. But the frequent loss of innocent lives in the US air raids on terrorist hideouts has also been causing embarrassment and US leaders have expressed deep regrets over the civilian casualties and said these would be investigated.
At the end of the trilateral discussions on May 6, Secretary of State Ms. Clinton reported “promising early signs' on the level of cooperation among the governments, especially the memorandum of understanding for a trade and transit agreement between Pakistan and Afghanistan to remove obstacles to exchange of goods and people across their border. According to participants, Pakistan was told to focus less on India and more on the danger within.
In the Senate there is greater insistence on Pakistan being made accountable for use of military aid to battle the al qaeda and associated groups including the LeT and J-e-Maid which have claimed responsibility for the terrorist attacks on India. These two India-centric groups are listed in the Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act 2009 moved by Messrs. Kerry and Lugar.
President Obama rounding off his talks noted that the leaders of the two democratically elected governments fully realised the gravity of the threat posed by militants. “We must do more than stand against those who would destroy Pakistan,†he said. US was sending more troops and personnel to train Afghan security forces and much of the assistance to Pakistan was to help build schools, roads and hospitals. While the road ahead would be difficult and there would be more violence and setbacks, the United States has made “a lasting commitment to defeat Al Qaeda and support democratically elected governments of both Pakistan and Afghanistan. No matter what happens, “we will not be deterred in meeting the challenge,†he said. (IPA Service)
Obama’s strategy to “disrupt, dismantle and defeat†al Qaeda
Pakistan's credibility in fighting militants on trial
Obama's major stake in progress on Af-Pak strategy
S. Sethuraman - 11-05-2009 08:11 GMT-0000
President Barack Obama's strategy to “disrupt, dismantle and defeat†al Qaeda and its extremist allies (Taliban) is being put to the severest test in the world's “most dangerous†region, Afghanistan-Pakistan, where terrorists operate from safe havens, especially in Pakistan's North-West tribal areas.