The question cannot be easily answered as the future shape of Punjab's politics will be determined by a number of factors. These include performance of Akali-BJP government, style of the ruling leaders functioning, particularly of Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal and the post-poll national political scenario.

The most important factor, however, will be the outcome of the poll of the two politically most important seats of Bathinda and Patiala where voting took place on May 7 alongwith that of Sangrur and Ferozepur. The four seats are part of Akali Dal's traditional Malwa stronghold. The region had overwhelmingly voted for Congress in 2007 Assembly polls mainly because of the en masse support to the party by the followers of Dera Sacha Sauda, an influential religio-social body headed by the controversial Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh.

The Bathinda and Patiala - particularly the hyper-sensitive Bathinda — contests have assumed significance because of the high political stakes of the ruling Badal and the former Congress Chief Minister Capt. Amarinder Singh's families. The main fight in Bathinda is between Harsimrat Kaur, wife of Sukhbir Badal and daughter-in-law of the Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal and Raninder Singh, son of Amarinder Singh. In Patiala the main contest is between Preneet Kaur the sitting Congress MP and wife of Capt. Amarinder Singh and former Akali MP and late SGPC Chief Tohra's loyalist Prem Singh Chandumajra.

Voter turnout is normally an indicator of electoral trends. Can the yardstick be applied in the case of Bathinda where voting percentage of 79 was the highest of the four constituencies and 61 of Patiala?

Two factors are usually responsible for higher voter turnout. One is intensity of competitiveness and the other is anti-incumbency. A close look at how these factors operated in Bathinda can provide an indication about the constituency's voting trends which both Akali Dal and Congress claim would favour them.

Cut-throat competition acquired political dimension in Bathinda making the high stake fight an intensely competitive and high costly contest. Both sides levelled allegations against each other for bribing voters. But ruling parties with vast resources and government power usually have an upper hand in vote purchasing. A leading English Daily's reporter was an eyewitness to the Akalis promising Rs.1,000 to per ID card holder at Mansa (Bathinda) but at the end paid voters only Rs.200!

A welcome aspect of the polling, however, was that the widespread apprehensions that the Akalis would resort to largescale rigging and booth capturing in Bathinda like what they did in urban local bodies elections in Malwa last year proved wrong for three main reasons. One, Election Commission had adopted strict measures including sending of large number of central security forces to Bathinda to ensure free and peaceful polling. Two, while it was easy for the Akali goons enjoying the protective cover of police and civil administration to rig the local level local bodies elections, it was logistically and organisationally impossible to undertake such a gigantic task in Lok Sabha elections. Thirdly, the Congress spearheaded by its Campaign Committee Chairman Capt. Amarinder Singh had announced to combatively confront the Akalis wherever they resorted to rigging.

High voting percentage in an anti-incumbency-hit state always works against the ruling party. It happened in Haryana in 2004 Lok Sabha and 2005 Assembly elections when Om Parkash Chautala's ruling INLD faced an anti-incumbency wave. Despite Chautala government's reasonable development record, the ruling party drew a blank in Lok Sabha polls and got only nine of the Assembly's 90 seats depriving it even the status of a recognised Opposition party. Punjab's Akali-BJP government is also facing an anti-incumbency wave. If there is high voting percentage in all the 13 constituencies, it will work against the ruling alliance. Whether the Badal family which remained confined mostly to Bathinda during campaigning and made extensive use of resources would help it bag the seat is a big question mark. With some variations, similar factors will play role in deciding the outcome of the Patiala poll.

If the Badal family loses Bathinda where the Dera supporters' vote is believed to have gone against the Akalis, it will have serious political ramifications for its as well as Akali-BJP government's prestige. It will be a double whammy for the two if the Akali Dal also loses Patiala. A victory in Bathinda will boost Badals and their government's image that the factionalism-hit Congress would find difficult to demolish for a long time. A defeat of Preneet Kaur would hit the 'Maharaja's' image and his political clout. But then he is nothing to lose but his Chairmanship of the Congress's Campaign Committee, the office.

After the Lok Sabha results, Sukhbir Badal's political and governance role will acquire greater focus. Besides factors like poor governance and government's non-performance, Sukhbir's autocratic style of functioning and alleged arrogance have also contributed to the generation of anti-incumbency sentiment and added to the number of his opponents particularly in Akali Dal. The role he played in rigging the 2008 local bodies elections negatively impacted his image earned during the 2007 Assembly elections which had helped the party capture power in Punjab.

Parkash Singh Badal cannot escape the responsibility for helping create such a situation. Unfortunately, Badal, an acknowledged statesman, a respected leader of amiable nature and a practitioner of consensus politics with over 50 years of rich political experience failed to inculcate these qualities in his son. The reason perhaps was that because of his old age constraints he was in a hurry to install Sukhbir as his political heir in the party and government. An inter-play of all the above factors is bound to adversely impact not only the Akali-BJP alliance's poll prospects but also its future politics.

Some events prove to be a turning point in politics. Lok Sabha poll will prove to be such a turning point but to the disadvantage of the Akali-BJP alliance and its politics. (IPA Service)