Most political analysts tend to see a pro-Jayalalithaa wave, judging by the crowds swaying to her flamboyant attacks on ruling DMK and its supremo Mr Karunanidhi, whose indisposition kept him out of a state-wide campaign to undo the damage and retrieve lost ground.

In her intense electioneering around the state, Ms. Jayalalithaa mainly stuck to attacking Mr. Karunanidhi for “promoting his family's interests” and blamed his government for prices and power shortages. She promised to open a new chapter of governance in Tamil Nadu to take care of “people's interests”, if she secured an outright win for her party and its allies including PMK, MDMK and the Left. With a no-holds-barred approach, she also preyed upon Tamil chauvinism making a strident advocacy of a separate Tamil “Eelam” in Sri Lanka, as the only solution to the 25-year old conflict.

Ms. Jayalalithaa counts on a victory to give her a say in government-making in Delhi and to hasten the end of the minority DMK government in Tamil Nadu run with Congress support. If the DMK-Congress alliance is worsted, it would be a remarkable turnaround as Ms. Jayalalithaa's party could not win a single Lok Sabha seat in 2004. A tight race is on and there are also spoilers in the run like some BJP candidates and those of the more promising DMDK of actor-politician Captain Vijayakanth.

The Congress had hoped to emerge stronger at the national level, having parked UPA aside, but first signs of discomfort were evident after the initial poll rounds for the 543-member Lok Sabha. Its jittery spokesmen hinted at openings for potential regional winners, not excluding those in NDA like Bihar Chief Minister Mr. Nitish Kumar of JD (U), who rebuffed Mr. Rahul Gandhi's admiration, as well as for “like-minded parties” such as AIADMK of Jayalalithaa. While this caused some dismay in Tamil Nadu, Ms. Sonia Gandhi abruptly cancelled a scheduled visit though it was clarified later she deferred it for Mr. Karunanidhi to get better.

Mounting a damage-control exercise, Mr. Rahul Gandhi rushed post haste to the state to address two meetings in which he defended UPA's record in keeping the interests of Sri Lankan Tamils all through, and lauded DMK's role in making Tamil Nadu “the pride of the nation”. The Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh, called on Mr. Karunanidhi in hospital the next day and later told a press conference that DMK remained “a valued friend” of the Congress. However, he seemed less categorical on post-poll options. Asked about the AIADMK, he said, “as of now, w are fighting this election in the company of the DMK.” It was their fervent hope that this alliance which had delivered solid results would be maintained in forming the government.

In the absence of the star campaigner Mr. Karunanidhi for the DMK-Congress alliance, it was left mainly to the party candidates to mobilize the votes and counter the powerful rhetoric of Ms. Jayalalithaa and other rivals. There has been a radical change in the atmosphere since 2004 when the DMK-led alliance could sweep the polls carrying all the 39 seats. Ms. Sonia Gandhi finally made it on May 10 with an address to a mass rally on the island grounds in Chennai with Mr. Karunanidhi by her side. She highlighted the achievements of UPA in advancing the country's interests including some of the development projects promoted in Tamil Nadu and reaffirmed the alliance with DMK under the “wise leadership” of Mr. Karunanidhi.

On the Sri Lankan Tamil issue, exploited by opposition parties to the maximum, Mrs. Gandhi asserted that it was the “resolute efforts” of UPA Government that led to an end in combat operations to save the lives of tens of thousands of Tamils trapped in the fighting and move them to safer zones. The Congress and UPA Government had all along stood for equal rights and status for Tamils in Sri Lanka within the framework of the 1987 Indo-Sri Lankan accord. She expressed her “pain and anguish” over the plight of Tamil brothers and sisters and children trapped in the fighting and said UPA was “determined” to ensure all those affected people are moved to safe zones and to carry on “our humanitarian work” in Sri Lanka.

Unlike the Congress struggling with its political arithmetic, the BJP led by Mr. L K Advani was exuding confidence of emerging as the largest single party and retaining all its NDA partners including JD(U). The BJP showmanship was convincingly demonstrated when it staged a rally of NDA leaders in Ludhiana on Sunday which included not only Mr. Nitish Kumar but also Telengana leader Mr. K Chandrasekhara Rao whose party was in the TDP-led Third Front in AP elections.

The Congress overtures to the Left for support in upholding secular forces were being firmly turned down by the CPI(M) leader Mr. Prakash Karat, who led the Left efforts to forge the Third Front with notable gains. He instead wanted the Congress to support an alternative secular government for which he saw “brightening prospects”. Would the Left tolerate a BJP-led Government? To this poser in a media interview, Mr. Karat simply said, “Let us wait for May 16 results”. Once the Congress had the tacit support of the Left, it would end the anti-Left alliance with Trinamul Congress in West Bengal, Ms. Mamata Banerjee has warned.

The 2009 elections may have surprises in store when the counting is taken up nationwide on May 16. The country seems to have drifted further away from a two-party system with regional parties increasingly calling the shots. This has serious implications in national policy-making as was seen during the UPA regime. The Congress nevertheless would be looking for some signs of revival, even feeble, in Bihar and UP. Regional parties like DMK will also have to watch out for shifts in voter mood for assembly poll. The BSP leader Ms. Mayawati's ambition to become Prime Minister might be in shambles.

Overall in the South, what matters for the Congress is retaining control of Andhra Pradesh led by Chief Minister Dr. Rajasekhara Reddy and maintaining at least its 2004 tally for Lok Sabha if expected gains in Kerala could offset possible losses in Tamil Nadu while holding the ground in AP and Karnataka. The Congress has its problems in the Hindi-speaking belt even if it manages to do better in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Haryana and Delhi as well as in the red bastion of West Bengal.

Curtains will fall on India's mammoth exercise in democracy on May 13 when polling is also concluded in the left over constituencies of UP (14), West Bengal (11) and Punjab (9) besides the smaller states of Uttarakhand (5) and Himachal Pradesh (4) and a couple of union territories, Chandigarh and Puducherry. Voter turn out has averaged 57 per cent in the first four phases of polling, which began on April 16. A rise in the average number of candidates per constituency to 14, the presence of over 100 candidates with criminal records, and the growing riches of politicians fortifying themselves further are among sad pointers in the 2009 elections. (IPA)