There are also signs that Pakistan's attitude may become more intransigent following the recent “successful” US-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue. This should be seen in the light of the indications that Pakistan Army Chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani is emerging as a powerful power centre and the on-going inter-party wrangling among Pakistan's political parties pose a danger to the country's political stability.

The state's changing security scenario can be attributed to three main factors. One, the change in the militants strategy. In the past, snow-covered mountain passes made cross-border infiltration hazardous during winters. Large cross-border infiltrations used to take place during summers for operations not only during the hot season but also during the winter. But in 2009-2010 winter, a large number of militants, heavily equipped with winter protection gadgets and sophisticated weapons, infiltrated into the state leading to increase in the terror strikes in the past few months.

Secondly, with an obvious nod from Pakistani rulers, the ISI has stepped up its logistic support to the highly trained militants. This has contributed to the increase in terrorist activities and frequency of encounters between Indian security forces and terrorists.

Thirdly, the withdrawal of several Indian Army units from the state in the past few months also provided a conducive atmosphere to terrorists for mounting their operations. Earlier, Indian Army Chief disfavoured withdrawal of the Army contingents. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah had also said on November 24 that “there had been a sea change in the security situation in the state but the increased level of infiltration from across the border was an area of great concern. The Army wants to do its primary duty, but the time is not conducive for its withdrawal from the state.”

The most important change in the ISI-backed militants strategy is their joining of hands to fight the security forces. State police sources say “due to a drop in the militants ranks, various organizations have come together to mount joint attacks.” They have also adopted a common communication code. These developments have been substantiated by an Islamabad report which said “Pakistan-based terror groups, including the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Hizbul Mujahideen met in Kotli in PoK and pledged to step up their jihad to liberate Kashmir from India.”

In this whole game of the “America-led global war on terror”, the US attitude has been hypocritical and double-faced. The Obama administration misses no opportunity in repeating that Islamabad has been asked to take action against Pakistani Punjab-based terror groups like the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-Mohammed which have close traditional links with ISI. The latest such assertion was repeated by Robert Blake, the US assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia after the US-Pakistan strategic dialogue. But despite such assertions Pakistan has not taken any credible action and has stepped up its support to the terrorist groups in Kashmir and other parts of India. US's “war on terrorism” is more a cover to protect its own national interests than a sincere effort to check global terror which is hitting different countries.

In this context, the strategically located Pakistan best serves its interests as forces of the US and its allies are fighting the Taliban and Al Qaeda marauders in Afghanistan and Pakistan's adjoining tribal areas. To carry out this fight, Pakistan serves as a crucial base. It is another matter that in the process Pakistan is compromising its sovereignty. It is not without reason that the present US government, in sharp contrast to the Clinton and Bush-led governments, has excessively tilted towards Pakistan. On the one hand, it declares that it is asking Pakistan to curb the terror groups operating from its soil. On the other hand, it is giving massive funds and sophisticated arms which in the past Pakistan has been using against India.

In this context, the US Secretary of state Hillary Clinton's remarks at the start of the Strategic Dialogue acquire significance. She said: “A new day” had begun in ties between the two countries. The US would help Pakistan on all issues, including meeting urgent (nuclear) energy needs. “Likening US-Pak relations to that between friends and family, Clinton said her country recognizes the “central role” that Pakistan is playing for stability in the region. Pakistan is close to my heart. Pakistan's struggles are my struggles and I am committed to the success of this (strategic) dialogue”.

Does Hillary believe in what Winston Churchill had once said “We are masters of the unsaid words, but slaves of those we let slip out?”

The above developments are likely to impact the security and political scenarios of not only Kashmir and India but also of the Af-Pak region. New Delhi will have to devise a strategy to meet these challenges. (IPA Service)