Among the somewhat less certain situations are the possibilities of Nitish Kumar gaining in Bihar at the expense of Lalu Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan, and of Mayawati losing ground in U.P compared to her performance in the last assembly election. In the same category lies the possibility of the Third Front falling apart under pressure from one of the front-runners, the BJP.

The front has already lost the Telengana Rashtriya Samiti to the NDA. It is entirely possible that Jayalalithaa, too, will walk over to the NDA, as in 1998. It is in this context that the Congress may be able to nose ahead of the rest of the pack with the Left's support since the latter will not like to be seen as having been instrumental in helping the NDA to attain power.

The problem with this arrangement is that Mamata Banerjee may break her ties with the Congress. However, her options will be limited. The BJP will undoubtedly welcome her back to its side. But such frequent switching of partners will not enhance her reputation. After all, she was with the Congress in the 2001 assembly polls in West Bengal, with the BJP in 2004 and 2006 and is now again with the Congress.

Besides, if the BJP's Jaswant Singh wins the Darjeeling seat in alliance with the Gorkha Janamukti Morcha, as he probably will, then their virtually separatist plank will make the saffronites so unpopular in the rest of the state that Mamata Banerjee will not risk returning to the NDA. Her present allies on the Left such as the Socialist Unity Centre of India and the Maoists will also dump her if she ties up with the BJP, as will Muslim groups like the Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind.

However, Mamata Banerjee may still pose a few problems for the Congress with her temper tantrums. Jayalalithaa, on the other hand, will be an even bigger one for the BJP since she will come to the NDA with her currently aggressive pro-LTTE baggage, which includes V. Gopalaswamy or Vaiko of the MDMK. As an essentially north Indian party, the BJP may not be too bothered about its southern ally's cynical posturing over Tamil Eelam. But it will not be easy for the BJP to reconcile its pretensions to be a national party with the virulent expressions of Tamil chauvinism by the AIADMK and the MDMK despite their ineffectiveness in real terms.

The three leaders who may feel at a loss are Mayawati, Naveen Patnaik and Chandrababu Naidu. Will they return to their old friend, the BJP, or try to steer a course of their own? The BSP leader will not have any immediate cause for concern because her position in the state will not be formally affected although a lacklustre performance by her party cannot but undermine her credibility. Since she likes to be the monarch of all that she surveys, a weakened position will hamper her combative personal style, not to mention her penchant for building statues of herself and Dalit icons like Ambedkar.

On their parts, Patnaik and Naidu may prefer to lie low for the time being even if the BJP approaches them for reconciliation. For either of them, a walk back to the saffron camp will be an admission of defeat, suggesting that they cannot survive on their own. A return to the BJP is also not the most attractive of options at a time when there is some uncertainty about how it will develop in the post-Advani period. Will Narendra Modi come to the forefront despite the SIT's Supreme Court-directed probes against him for his role in the 2002 riots? Will the BJP be able to pursue a moderate line after both Vajpayee and Advani leave the scene?

The NDA may have projected its Ludhiana rally as a show of strength. But it is necessary to remember that several of its allies are bit players. These include the Shiv Sena, the RLD, the INLD, the AGP and the TRS. After the departure of Patnaik and Mamata Banerjee, the only friend of substance left in the NDA is Nitish Kumar. But, although he finally shared a dais with Modi in Ludhiana, he must have wondered about the reaction of his Muslim supporters in Bihar. Will they wonder whether their “secular” leader be next seen with Varun Gandhi?

Among the Congress's allies, the really dicey figure, as may be expected, is Sharad Pawar. But his ambitions depend on the Third Front putting up a good show. But, since the chances of this happening are not too high, the NCP leader will probably remain in the UPA. So will Lalu Yadav, Paswan and Mulayam Singh since they, too, will not have anywhere to go, especially if their parties fail to do well. It is the same with the Left, for its expected setbacks in West Bengal and Kerala will mean a reduction of its earlier clout. (IPA Service)