Though the final numbers at the hustings will decide the nature of the alliance and the extent of bargaining, the two Communist parties, the CPI and the CPI-M, have already started preliminary exercises for formulating a common minimum programme on the basis of which discussions can take place after the Lok Sabha results are declared.

The CPI has convened a meeting of its central secretariat on May 18 which will be followed by a meeting of the national executive on May 19 and 20. Top CPI-M leaders will be meeting in Delhi on May 19, and the central committee has been convened on May 22 and 23 to discuss the latest political situation including formation of the new government at the Centre and working of a common minimum programme if the Left has to play any role in formation of the new government.

Left sources point out that if the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections is such that, in order to prevent BJP from coming to power, the Congress has to be supported to form a government, the Left will make no bones about insisting on a programme that will be far more pro-people and tuned to protect the national interests in terms of foreign policy. The CMP, prepared by the UPA after the 2004 Lok Sabha elections in consultation with the Left, had a number of grey areas. This led to continuous friction between the government and the Left; and it covered both economic issues and foreign policy including Indo-US relations.

This time, the Left wants to ensure that there is no ambiguity in the CMP, to avoid friction in future. For instance, in respect of the foreign policy, the Left wants to rework the Indo-US Nuclear Deal with the Obama government. In fact CPI-M general secretary Prakash Karat in a recent TV interview expressed the view that Obama has a fresh approach to foreign policy issues and his speech on the nuclear disarmament gives India an opening to discuss the nuclear cooperation agreement. In fact, he is hopeful of discussing the entire relationship with the USA on a fresh footing if the Left has any role in the new government.

It is recalled that the differences over the Indo-US Nuclear Deal led to the withdrawal of Left support to the UPA government in 2008. The Left openly declared that Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh was trying to make India a partner in the US global strategy by agreeing to the Nuclear Deal. Since the US now has a new President who is talking about giving a new shape to the US relations with other countries including those which were earlier opposed to it, the Left is also looking at the Indo-US relations from a new perspective, unlike the one it had in the Bush era. In a recent commentary, US Communist Party chairman Sam Webb analysed Obama's one hundred days in office and commented that so far, Obama's presidency has not only broken decisively from the rightwing extremist policies of the Bush administration, but has also taken measures, domestically and internationally, that denote a progressive direction.

That way, Indo-US relations are sure to undergo a change; and it could be completely different compared to the Bush tenure once Obama starts talking to India on the pending issues. Even the Congress leadership will be compelled to change its strategy it adopted earlier in respect of the Indo-US strategic alliance. This naturally provides a fresh opportunity for the Left to press its point of view which will be in the nature of imparting a fresh dimension to the relations between India and the other countries apart from the US. During the last five years, the Manmohan Singh government was so much obsessed with foreign investment and Indo-US relations, especially nuclear deal, that relations with smaller countries were ignored. Right now, India is having big problems with its neighbours. The new independent foreign policy will focus on relations with other countries which were neglected in the last tenure of the UPA government.

As regards the economic policies, the Congress leadership is also giving a close look at the existing economic policies and its emphasis on foreign investment and neglect of the task of creating demand in the domestic sector. The global financial crisis of the last one and a half years has put the focus on the public sector and the domestic industries again. Accordingly, the Congress is also fine-tuning its programme. The election manifesto of the Congress Party focussed on the aam admi and the need for improving their lot through creation of more jobs for the rural and urban poor. If this has to be translated into practice, a lot of existing policies will have to be revamped; and the Congress has to agree to accommodate, to a great extent, the Left recommendations on employment generation and creation of rural demand.

Noted economist Arjun Sengupta has mentioned the targeted policy of expanding employment, especially in the unorganised sector. He has the confidence of Congress President Sonia Gandhi, and his views are also respected by the Left. His agenda for reviving the rural economy is being closely studied by both the Congress and the Left. Some of his recommendations may form part of the common minimum programme if the compulsions of the electoral figures force the Congress and the Left to have some understanding on the running of a new government. He has suggested that the NREGA which contributes to improvement in the condition of rural poor, has to be implemented as entitlement of workers, with proper social auditing and financial permission, and extended to the urban poor.

As per Dr. Sengupta's recommendation, the social security programme, which has already been introduced, requires universal extension for all informal workers, providing a minimum floor or quality employment. Skill development programmes, which have just been initiated, would need to be implemented with major institutional changes. He has suggested that the new approach to planning should be based on maximising employment in terms of quantity and quality and social development.

Compared to 2004, the situation in 2009 is much more propitious for a Congress-Left common minimum programme since the global financial crisis and the coming of President Obama at the helm of US administration have brought about fundamental changes in the two contentious issues which dogged the earlier relationship between the Congress and the Left. The final numbers on May 16 will decide whether such a programmatic collaboration is possible. (IPA)