Even the irrepressible Mamata Banerjee prefers silence as the better part of valour, for once, as she begins to comprehend that that any glitch threatening the alliance in the post-poll scenario will hurt the TMC much more than the Congress. And the TMC will have only itself to blame for the consequences!

It is Ms Banerjee's singular-minded obsession with an anti CPI(M) agenda that has led her party to a political dead end .The TMC, unlike most other parties, has not approached the 2009 Lok sabha polls as a general election at all. It has fought its campaign as the preparation for the state assembly polls, at times even as the local municipal polls! TMC leaders have raked up old local issues, incidents, administrative failures, laying the blame for every thing on the CPI(M) — and that includes even the occasional floods and the unseasonal rains in the state!

Nowhere is there any emphasis on a single national issue, such as the national economy during a recessionary phase, globalisation, the communal tensions in different states, the crisis in the spheres of health, education, agriculture and foreign policy. For the TMC, such issues do not exist.

Clearly the Congress's approach, as a national party, is very different, whether in West Bengal or elsewhere. As soon as the high-command became aware that initial trends in the rounds of polling held so far did not exactly indicate a Congress cakewalk, leaders began hunting around for post-poll allies. This exercise included looking up and contacting old allies and friends like the left parties.

Instead of the confident rhetoric at the beginning of the campaign — “the Congress is confident of forming the government alone”... — the message now was, “our experience of working with the Left was mostly positive”. Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh recalled his “friendship” with Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee.

This, only days after he criticised the left for its withdrawal of support over the Indo-US nuclear deal, and its lack of vision, at an election meeting in Howrah. But then these are among the compulsions of a major national party, which feels it is not doing well in the numbers game.

The BJP, too, was active on a similar exercise. Mr. L.K. Advani took care not to criticise Ms Banerjee in his speeches, as he sensed the new mood. And the BJP too was exactly in the same look-for-allies mode, with the day of counting steadily drawing near. Leaders and parties like Mr. Naveen Patnaik and the BJP, Mr. Nitish Kumar and the JD(U), were being approached by both camps as never before.

What queered the pitch for the TMC, which could sense it was being ditched by its senior partner, was Ms Banerjee's ill-advised threat to withdraw from the so-called alliance — Pranab Mukherjee always called it an “adjustment — if the Congress sought left support to form the next government.

Neither Ms Sonia Gandhi nor Congress general Secretary Rahul Gandhi, according to left sources, appreciated Ms Banerjee's compulsions in the state, let alone share her obsession against the CPI(M). Result: Neither Mrs Gandhi nor Rahul campaigned for the TMC in the last phase, although Ms Banerjee had been promised they would address at least one meeting jointly in her South Kolkata constituency.

It was not for nothing that beyond spelling out her disillusionment to party insiders, Ms Banerjee chose to remain silent, seeing where her warning to break the alliance had led her. The bigger party, which played a subservient role to the TMC in the pre-poll run up was now getting its own back in no uncertain terms.

The post-poll scenario may see the Congress trying to drum up as many numbers as possible; and wooing the left will be a major part of this exercise. After all, the left parties will be more reliable and less demanding than the BSP, or the SP, to give an example.

For the third front too, where the left parties will be an important component, entering into an understanding with the Congress will make more sense than nudging closer to the ideologically hostile NDA. Where does that leave a party like the TMC?

Pretty much in nowhere land.

Scenario 1 for the TMC: After all their hard work and pre poll running, TMC supporters will not be resigned to sit in the opposition with or against, the UPA, and wait for two long years until 2011 when they have another go against the CPI(M).

Scenario 2. They can join a Congress-led government with a ministerial seat for Ms Banerjee, but this may not be possible without left support that she hates so viscerally.

So will she or won't she?

Possibility 3. She can always take her party back to the NDA. Breaking old promises and commitments come easy to parties like the TMC. But alternatives 2 and 3 will involve a major loss of face and position for the TMC.

So which is it going to be?(IPA)