An interesting reason for forging new alliances and dumping old ones could be that those parties which are marginalised in their states like the SP, RJD, LJP, AIADMK, Trinamool Congress and even TDP may want to join the government at the Centre to keep their parties alive in their respective states.

The pre-poll scenario saw the emergence of the 10-party third front and a fourth front aiming to form a non-Congress, non-BJP group. They have failed to keep their flock together even before the poll results are out. The first to flee from the third front was the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS). TRS chief K. Chandrashekhara Rao came to Delhi, pleased with the reports that his party may do well, and met Congress and BJP leaders. His promise that he will get others to support the NDA is giving sleepless nights to the “Grand Alliance” partners in Andhra Pradesh.

Obviously, the BJP has offered the TRS chief more with the result he decided to show up at the NDA rally this week, giving jitters to the third front, particularly TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu who is hoping for TRS support in Andhra Pradesh. However, going by the way the political parties are behaving, it would not take a minute for the TRS to change sides and go back to the third front or move to the Congress camp. Interestingly, the BJP has already opened its channel to woo Chandrababu Naidu, who was an NDA supporter at one time.

The second party is the TDP which had kept the NDA government going from 1999 to 2004. The cat was out of the bag when BJP leader Venkaiah Naidu started making frantic efforts to woo the TDP chief.

The third party to shatter the hopes of the third front was the Janata Dal (S). It was intriguing to see former Karnataka chief minister and JD(S) leader Kumaraswamy landing at 10 Janpath, his covered with a black hand kerchief. Kumaraswamy's strange explanation was that he had gone there to discuss Karnataka-specific issues! Are there any buyers for his explanation?

The Left, which has been working for a non-Congress, non-BJP government at the Centre, is not as upbeat as the Congress and the BJP after all these developments. Their goal is to form a government with Congress support if they get about 120 seats. But the Left is veering round to the second option of supporting a Congress-led government to keep the BJP out. The Left leaders are privately talking about the conditions on the basis of which they could support the Congress. These include acceptable foreign and economic policies and a Prime Minister acceptable to them. Contrary to what CPI-M general secretary Prakash Karat has repeatedly asserted that the Left will not support a Congress-led government, West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya has opened a window to the Congress. This shows that within the CPI-M opinion is divided on post-poll alliances. All these may be good signals for the Congress, which is showing its willingness to do business with the Left.

For the newly-formed fourth front, things are not going well at all. When they formed the front, the Samajwadi Party (SP), Rashtriya Janata Dal(RJD) and Lok Janshakti Party(LJP) thought that, together, they may get 40 seats and could be a pressure block for bargaining in the post-poll scenario. Things have not gone as they have hoped for, and their chances are rated low at present. Take the case of the Samajwadi Party. Its chief Mulayam Singh Yadav is in danger of losing grip on both the Muslims and the Yadavs, the two blocks on which he has been depending.

The Muslims are annoyed with Mulayam's teaming up with Kalyan Singh whom they view as the villain of the Babri masjid demolition; they are also annoyed at his sidelining of Azam Khan, a Muslim leader in Rampur. Muslim disenchantment with Mulayam was evident even in the 2007 U.P Assembly elections. But it has deteriorated with the eruption of infighting and emergence of the Kalyan factor. In the changed circumstances, it looks unlikely that the SP would be able to retain its 2004 tally. Had the SP and the Congress contested together, the results would have been better for both.

The problem for SP is that it has to be in power either at the Centre or in the state for survival. With Mayawati firmly in the saddle for the next three years in the state, the next best thing for Mulayam is to make sure he is in the government at the Centre and Maya does not move to the Centre. It is with this aim that he had formed the fourth front with his Yadav counterpart in Bihar Lalu Prasad Yadav of the RJD and the LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan.

However, reports form U.P and Bihar predict that the Yadav raj is over in both U.P and Bihar. While pollsters give Mulayam half of what SP won the last time, the electoral fortunes of the two Bihar leaders -Lalu and Paswan- are also not looking bright as the MY combination of Lalu is getting shaky. While a section of the Yadavs has moved to Nitish, Muslims have also shifted their stand. Lalu too faced rebellion from his own brother-in-law, who fought on a Congress ticket. The LJP is also in the same boat. Moreover, Lalu and Paswan have to find berths at the Centre as Nitish is firmly settled in the Bihar gaddi. So unless they find a power base at the Centre, they will be nowhere.

The 2009 elections have brought out one thing during the campaign: both regional and national parties are willing to keep their options open; there is no principle or ideology except power, which is the only cementing factor.(IPA Service)