His addressing a public rally in Champaran on February 26 and later interacting with the anti-Nitish and anti-Lalu forces and individual in Patna was a part of this design. Shah has been working on the political line of isolating the Yadavs from other OBC castes and forge a new axis of other OBC constituents, particularly Koiri and Kurmis, with that of constituents of Mahadalits and EBCs.

The primary task before Shah is to isolate Nitish from his own caste men; win over them through the new found friend Upendra Kushwaha, who only a week back quit the JD(U) and floated his new party. Earlier Shah had desperately tried to use RCP Sinha, a close confidant of Nitish, who was a minister in Modi cabinet. But Sinha miserably failed to deliver.

After this aborted move, Shah zeroed in on Kushwaha, who has a running love and hate relation with Nitish. Having a hurt ego, after being denied of the office of deputy chief minister, he was the best bet for Shah. In his mission Shah also received the support of yet another disgruntled dalit leader, Mukesh Sahani, chief of Vikassheel Insan Party. He was also nursing a hurt feeling after being denied of the post of deputy chief minister.

Chirag Paswan who had openly announced that he was the Hanuman of Modi, also joined hands with Shah to give a shape to his mission to politically finish Nitish. Political circles assert that Shah has been working on his Plan KMP (Plan Kushwaha, Mukesh Sahani and Paswan). On paper this may appear tobe a strong and viable force. But in reality it is not more than a paper tiger. Kushwaha community constitutes 4 percent of the state’s population. But Upendra Kushwaha has never been a face of his caste.

Chirag has a tough battle ahead him with his uncle (chacha), Pashupati Paras, the younger brother of Ram Bilas Paswan, a minister in Modi government. Chirag has to ensure that he gets a place in the inner coterie of Modi. This is a tough task. Besides Chirag is yet to be accepted by the Paswan community also having 4 per cent population, a constituent of Mahadalit class created and recognised by Nitish, as their leader. The contradiction is quite deep and of manifold dimension. The only leader who can be of some help is Mukesh Sahani who incidentally is the leader of Mallahs (fishermen) having nearly 5 per cent population.

Even it is presumed that Shah has managed to win the support of nearly 13 per cent population, which is a distant possibility, it would be a tough [proposition for Shah to oust Nitish. The seven party Mahagathbandhan is a formidable force and it is not an easy proposition to break the alliance.

The presence of CPI(ML)-Liberation in the alliance has the potential to obliterate the permutations and combinations of Shah. The Liberation has fought a protracted battle for nearly 50 years with the feudal elements and landlords. Its primary vanguard and soldiers were the Dalits and landless labourers. Even in a situation when Nitish was an ally of BJP, Liberation could ensure the victory of its 12 candidates in the 2020 assembly elections. It would not be an exaggeration to say that Liberation represents the aspirations of the Dalits and EBCs.

At his rally in Lauria, Amit Shah did not have anything concrete to offer to the people. He indulged in his usual rhetoric of Nitish bashing. BJP’s strategist, told a rally and a conclave of farmers and labourers that the doors were shut “for ever” for Kumar, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s return to power will be followed by the party winning assembly elections on its own.

Shah, also ridiculed the tie up between RJD and JD(U) comparing it to “a mix of oil and water” wherein a blend was impossible notwithstanding “Prime Ministerial ambitions” of the Bihar CM that drove him “into the laps of Lalu and Sonia Gandhi”. Shah’s events were a strictly BJP affair with almost all prominent leaders of the party in the state, including Union ministers, in attendance.

The turnout at the Lauria rally in contrast to Purnea rally of Mahagathbandhan was not impressive. Shah continued harping on one line that he would not admit Nitish again into the NDA was not liked by the people as he only a couple of months back had said that he would die rather than join hands with the saffron party. Interestingly Nitish and Lalu Yadav asserted at the rally that “ideology” brought them together and Mahagathbandhan will set the tone for the defeat of the seemingly invincible BJP in 2024 elections. Nitish reiterated that the BJP will be restricted to under 100 seats if all the opposition parties, including the Congress, fight the 2024 Lok Sabha polls unitedly.

The two rallies clearly bore the impression that BJP and Mahagathbandhan have swung into election mode almost a year ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. Nitish said “Seven parties have formed an alliance in Bihar. Similarly, all opposition parties in the country should come together to oust the Narendra Modi-led government”.

The importance of Purnea rally could be understood from the simple fact all the top leaders of the alliance were present and addressed the rally. Even Lalu Yadav addressed through video conferencing from Delhi where he is recuperating after a kidney transplant operation in Singapore.

CPIML(L) general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya, accused the BJP of destroying the democratic institutions of the country. “The BJP’s misrule has plunged the country into a deep crisis. The time has come to fight the fascist forces that are trying to disrupt social harmony and integrity of the country by instigating communal passion,” he said

True enough Lalu Yadav was categorical in his attack; “The BJP is not a political party, it is the mask of RSS. I had stopped the BJP rath (yatra in 1990) with the help of the people. In 2013 itself, I had warned that constitutional institutions would suffer if the BJP came to power. Now Nitish and I have come together, we will stop the BJP in 2024”. He also urged the people “Take a pledge to oust BJP in 2024 by remaining united to protect the country and the minorities”.

The rally was the first show of strength by the seven-party coalition after coming to power in Bihar in August 2022. Lalu recalled how he had stopped BJP leader L K Advani’s rath Yatra in 1990. “BJP and RSS are against minorities and weaker sections of the society... We (the grand alliance) will wipe out BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha and 2025 assembly polls”. Lalu’s active participation in anti-BJP movement is sure to give a big boost to the grand alliance prospects in the Lok Sabha elections. (IPA Service)