Then it has to find new allies - with their own terms - and re-negotiate with estranged partners, in the case of UPA, to produce the magical number, 272 for absolute majority in the Lok Sabha.

Most exit polls had put the Congress ahead of BJP with varying margins. All parties are keeping their fingers crossed for a better outcome than these guessworks.

The projections in the exit polls of the likely strengths of parties at state levels had given an added edge to the desperate race to line up support from regional players. BJP, unlike the Congress, was more assertive of its becoming the largest party and leading a pre-poll alliance (NDA). Nevertheless, it equally swung into action to make sure it had the requisite numbers.

Days before the exit polls were out, the Congress started unabashedly to court potential allies, old and new, spreading its net far and wide, barring BJP and Shiv Sena. The Congress and the Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, in particular, had made overtures to the Left contending that all secular parties should come together to form the government. The implied hope was that the Congress would again lead a revamped UPA.

The Third Front, no longer holding together with its constituents keeping their options open, insisted that a government promoted by the Third Front should be supported by the Congress, a role reversal perhaps or Congress participation in that Government headed by a person acceptable to both sides. It is in this context that unexpectedly the name of Mr A K Antony, Defence Minister in UPA, was floated. Parties awaited for some surprises on May 16 when the actual numbers came out before they had to reckon with realities.

The Third Front and the Fourth Front of Samajwadi Party, RJD and LJP would be conferring over the weekend to firm up their strategy on Government formation. Ms. Sonia Gandhi held talks with Mr. Sharad Pawar, NCP leader and UPA ally, to make sure that he had no second thoughts She reached out to Mr. Lalu Prasad and Mr. Ram Vilas Paswan. The Congress spokesman Mr. Digvijay Singh was in contact with Mr. Amar Singh, the conscience keeper of Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Mr. Pawar has a claim for Prime Ministership and could get support across the Third Front but may not go down with the Congress which wants to lead the Government, if there is to be a change in the leadership of the ruling dispensation as part of the new coalition-making.

Over the next two weeks there would be intense political activity in the capital as each regional party would have to decide where they should be and what it would mean for furthering their own interests for the future. .

“Amma” (Ms. Jayalalithaa) has not said 'no' to any of those approaching her. The votes for her would decide whether she should take a flight to Delhi on May 18.

So far, no party has talked of policy issues but most of them could be expected to bring up their own regional concerns, political, social and economic, and these would have to be reconciled and put down as a common programme along with the major national and international policies that India would have to pursue. But what is becoming clear at this stage is that the common manifesto would have to conform broadly to the wishes of the various constituents in what may turn out to be a more unwieldy and unstable alliance.

The economic crisis that India is going through, with sharp downturn in output and exports, will have to be overcome involving more fiscal and monetary measures in the coming months. A new Government to be formed by June 2 will present its budget in July when the 15th Lok Sabha is summoned. There would be contentions for key portfolios, designed to reduce the dominance of Congress in shaping policies and decision-making. If the Left support remains a pre-requisite, even in its attenuated strength, it would become even more assertive regarding priorities so that no one single issue overshadowed the rest of the programme as the Indo-US civil nuclear cooperation deal did in the years 2005-08.

There are no longer calls for free markets everywhere - whatever the talk of deepening of reforms by some sections in India obsessed with the romance of globalisation - from either the leading industrial nations or from the international financial institutions like IMF and the World Bank. Fire-fighting is on a global scale to rescue the world economy from the worst recession since the Great Depression of 1930s and restoring jobs for tens of millions who have been laid off everywhere.

Our own men at the helm of affairs talk of India emerging out of the crisis sooner but take care to say it would depend on the start of global recovery. Regrettably, there are no signs that official India is drawing any lessons from what has happened. Through initial faith in de-coupling, and reliance on resilience all the time, the policy-makers failed to gauge the magnitude of the global crisis in the build-up. This explained the belated fiscal stimulus in parts, too little and too late, whatever the budgetary limitations.

Even so, India is headed for two fiscal yeas of low growth of between 4.5 and 6.5 per cent till March 2011. The budget gap has widened inexorably and is not amenable to being controlled over the medium term. Crucial decisions are awaited later this year on tax devolution among states and other fiscal reforms once the report of the 13th Finance Commission is received by October at the latest.

International calls are for countries to focus more on domestic economy, create internal demand and promote greater consumption while building infrastructure and expanding social safety nets and the services that would bring about inclusive growth meaningfully. Rebalancing of demand rather than dependence on export-led growth is advocated. It is unlikely there would be any early resumption of significant capital inflows. In such a situation, there should not be much difficulty in forging an understanding among alliance partners on mobilisation of internal and external resources for development.

What is required is more cohesion ideologically to programmes that would benefit the farmers, the workers and the productive sectors. Such efforts, if successful, could lead to more jobs and incomes and greater political stability and a gradual shift away from narrow, sectional interests to broader national goals in which people in all parts of the country would have a stake.

There are even more challenging issues of national and external security in a period of extraordinary turmoils in South Asia and India needs to grasp diligently the new positive approaches in US outreach to the world that the Obama Administration is making generally. There are areas where India has concerns and these should be discussed. USA leads the global fight against terrorism, a vital national concern, and is supportive of greater role for emerging economies in international institutions. Workable solutions are also within sight for global problems like energy security and climate change. (IPA)