This is not to suggest that the industry is well-placed, however. Both camps are in broad agreement that production could very well see a decline during the next few years unless corrective steps are initiated in time.

An official report on the state of the tea industry circulated along with the annual budget proposals sounded the strongest alarm, a few days ago. Presenting a doomsday scenario for planters in the years ahead in considerable detail, analysts warned that a major crisis could hit output in the none-too-distant future.

This analysis predicated its concern over the fall in output in recent years. A section of planters maintain that the output in 2022 might see an actual reduction of around 20% on a y-to-y basis.

Others point out that recent years have not been normal not merely in terms of tea production levels, but life as a whole was badly affected all over the world because of the massive Corona pandemic. For instance, the pandemic was raging in Assam in 2020. This resulted in a sharp drop in manpower in the plantations, impacting normal work directly, because of the strict restrictions on the normal movement of people and goods.

Assam planters are not inclined to read very much into the decline in output in the highly unusual, even exceptional, circumstances seen in 2020.

Nevertheless, Assam’s production has gone through its ups and downs in the years following, too. The overall situation might have improved at present over what was seen in 2020, but conditions still remained largely unfavourable.

The January to Nov period in 2021 ended with a state output of 641 million kilos, a substantial improvement over the 2020 figure of 593 million kgs only Yet producers were not satisfied, as overall output was still well below normal level production by about 9% --- a net drop of 52 m kgs !

Tea Board as well as industry circles were not yet convinced that the fluctuations in the size of the final harvest in recent years signified a definite trend. While conceding the possibility of a drop in the output during the next few years, they insisted that the situation had somewhat improved of late and conditions were gradually becoming normal.

Most cited familiar reasons for the decline in the industry : an increasing shortage of workers, fluctuating climatic conditions triggered by global warming, and rising production costs.

Mr. Ajanta Neog Assam’s Minister for tea production, seeking to boost confidence among producers, announced that Government would soon announce a slew of fresh incentives for the planters .

Analysts said that going by available indications, there was a general feeling that it was only a question of time before a crisis situation would develop. They pointed to the steady decline in yield per hectare for tea in Assam, which still accounted for more than 50% of the national production , claiming the greatest share for the exports earned annually.

According to one report, over the past two decades, average production of leaf from a hectare of soil had dropped from 2120 kilos to only 1130 , in 2022 ! This trend was too ominous to be dismissed casually.

The pessimists also took note of a recent survey into the state of the 200 year old industry in Assam by the Indian Institute of Technology Its findings did not make for happy reading.

Assam had been more vulnerable to the negative impact of global warming in recent years, which played havoc with the production of a sensitive item like tea. The quantum of rainfall fluctuated, but it had mostly reduced. The nature of precipitation was increasingly unpredictable, with a ruinous effect not only on the size of the harvest, but on the quality/taste of the leaves, too.

Increasing soil erosion owing to long droughts after the winter season and sudden outburst of torrential rains led to flash flood and burnouts. During the last 20 years , while winter seasons became warmer and shorter than before, the quantum of rainfall reduced by about 11 mms state-wide.

Plantation owners eagerly await the relief package that the state Government has promised to help them run the industry better. By way of concrete suggestions, there has come a proposal from an eminent planter to the Government : there should be a carefully planned afforestation in the areas close to Assam/Arunachal border, to ensure that relentlessly rising temperature in spring and summer could be kept under check , accompanied by a general cooling of the environment in general and bringing in cleaner, more breathable air for all. (IPA Service)