The worst drought of the century, coupled with the major failure of ill-advised dam construction and reckless infrastructure building projects, is crippling the giant rural economy in China.

It could turn out to be a major ecological disaster of the new century. Unfortunately, its negative impact could well overwhelm large tracts of India, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Viet Nam, Myanmar, and Thailand as well.

In India and Bangladesh, the population directly dependent on the Brahmaputra river for their survival and economic sustenance is almost equal to the joint population of the US and Europe. The river serves a largely agricultural area spreading over 9,30,000 square kilometres .

Annually an estimated 71.4 billion cubic metres of water flow down the Brahmaputra. The Chinese have been thinking of diverting at least 40 billion cubic metres, well over half of the total flow, to their northwestern regions. This would leave very little for lower riparian countries like India and Bangladesh. The climatic and economic impact on these countries is too dreadful to contemplate, not to mention the political fallout.

What adds to concerns expressed by ecologists is the ambivalent blow- hot- blow -cold attitude of Chinese authorities to persistent media reports on their plans for the Brahmaputra.

Queried on their Brahmaputra plans, mid ranking Chinese officials have issued mildly worded denials. “It (the diversion of the river) has not been considered. Such suggestions are unrealistic and it seems some retired officials have been thinking along these lines.” At no point of time has the Chinese government declared that there are no plans to proceed with any such project.

The official indifference prevailing in New Delhi and Dhaka is also intriguing, to say the least. Project Brahmaputra has been discussed occasionally in the national media. The present writer reported the findings of a study on the project by John Horgan, an expert, in a technical journal almost a decade ago. Horgan reasoned that the Chinese proposed to irrigate parts of their northwestern region with the waters of the Tsangpo. The objective was to beat back the expanding Gobi desert, covering over 1,300,000 square kilometers, and growing 3 kilometres annually. With irrigation, a new vast hinterland could be opened up which would be nothing short of an economic leap for China.

Experts point out that despite having 22% of the world's population, China's share of freshwater resources was only 7%. Also, meeting drinking water and irrigation requirements of around 757 million rural people was a gargantuan task.

And this is not something that was considered a priority for the Chinese. Somehow, the grandiose infrastructure projects like building Railway lines on the highest ranges in Tibet and elsewhere to serve military needs , the Olympic games, building new roads and stadia in Beijing or Shanghai, holding massive Expo shows—these were considered more important than helping the countryside stabilise its economy.

Now that the massive drought continues, there are reports of villagers deserting their villages and moving towards the urban centres, as securing drinking water becomes a problem. Officially authorities deny such reports. But it is a fact that over 2,60,000 troops of the People” Liberation army have been digging new wells wherever possible and ferrying water for parched throats in many areas. Hong Kong-based media reports say that at least 22 million people have been hit by the drought in Guangxi, Guizhiou, Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing, not to mention parts of Shansi, Hebei and Gansu provinces. Angry villagers consider that the government failed to plan in advance for the drought and present efforts are in the too little, too late category.

The government's resources are strained, too. The ill advised 3 gorges Dam project cost over $26 billion and the South North Water Diversion project, $17.6 billion, without visible benefits to the peasants or their farms. In a frenzy of big construction, over 80 reservoirs were built, of which nearly half have silted up. These are no help in either fighting the drought, or in staving off massive floods.

The Mekong river is flowing at its lowest level in two decades,. It also originates in the Tibet plateau. The situation has turned so bad that members of the Mekong River Commission, — countries like Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, Viet Nam and others — met in Bangkok for the first time in 15 years, according to media reports. China is no member. Questioned closely about China's dam building activities on the Mekong, Vice Foreign Minister Song Tao said no such activities had been conducted on the source of the river! But this hardly convinced the lower riparian countries.

It is not the done thing in international politics to accuse one country or another of lying. But the fact remains that often, Chinese official claims about a project or a given situation have been contradicted by ground level realities. For instance, the Chinese continue to deny that they are thinking of diverting the Brahmaputra or putting up a series of dams at the point of its origin. The fact is, experts reported that at one time, the Chinese had even considered conducting “limited “nuclear explosions to aid their projects.

More alarmingly, Google recently released pictures of the proposed work site close to the source of the river Brahmaputra, which showed new buildings, construction activities and a clear pipeline which could be used only for carrying off water from one place to another!!!

The project would also provide China with an upper hand in all its diplomatic dealings with India and Bangladesh in future. It would also help in meeting the ever increasing irrigation and drinking water needs of the most populous country in the world, now about to become the planet's largest economic power. It is time for India to take note of these realities and start devising a long term strategy without delay, if it is to meet this challenge from its mighty northern neighbour effectively. (IPA)