From now on, there will be a sea change in the correlation of forces outside the two major combinations led by the UPA and the NDA, and the Left will lose its clout with the political players which it enjoyed hitherto because of its strength in the 14th Lok Sabha.

In the 2004 elections, the Left won a total of 59 seats out of which the CPI-M alone bagged 43, followed by the CPI with 10 and the Forward Bloc and the RSP three each. After two Independents supported by the Left joined the bloc, the total Left strength in the LS went up to 61. This helped the UPA to secure a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha and run the government in the first four years of its tenure. With today's results, the Left strength has come down to less than 50 per cent of its earlier tally. For the CPI-M, it has been the worst battering since its tally is hovering around 20 which is less than half of its earlier strength.

What is most shocking for the CPI-M is the performance in West Bengal. It was expected that the Left will lose some seats in the state to the fiery offensive of the Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee calling for change in West Bengal after 32 years of LF rule. This evoked good response both in urban and rural areas. But the understanding in the CPI-M was that sheer strength of its organisation and bullying tactics of the cadres will help to foil the move of the unorganised masses to favour TC-Congress combination. But this has not happened. Instead, Mamata was able to galvanise the unorganised masses who were fed up with LF rule but had no voice to articulate the disenchantment. Mamata gave them that leadership. In the process, the disgruntled masses belonging to the CPI-M base also swelled the ranks of the TC-Congress combination.

In the 2004 elections, out of the 42 seats in West Bengal, the LF secured 35, Congress 6 and TC only one - that of Mamata. But in the 15th Lok Sabha, the LF figure is only 14 while the TC alone bagged 19 seats, and the Congress 7. The BJP bagged one; so did SUC, the TC ally. The trouncing of the Left by the TC-Congress alliance and the defeat of the CPI-M in most of its strongholds by a substantial margin show that there has been a big shift to Mamata's alliance from the LF mass base. The success of the alliance candidates in most of the rural seats in West Bengal is a grim reminder to the CPI-M that its traditional base has drastically eroded and the trends which were visible in the panchayat elections, local council polls and the recent by-elections, have further crystallized in favour of the alliance slogan of Mamata backing the farmers and their right to land.

The CPI-M controls three state governments right now: West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. In Tripura, the party has retained the two seats it had in the 14th Lok Sabha; and there has been no erosion in its base. In Kerala, though the LDF has bagged only five seats as against 15 by the Congress-led UDF, it is not unusual. For, in Kerala, there is always change in the Lok Sabha results in view of low victory margins of the candidates. Also, there is not much difference in total vote shares. In the 2004 elections, the LDF won 18 seats and the UDF, only one. The governments also change in Kerala and the people are used to it. That way, the results in Kerala are disappointing to the Left but not disastrous since the LDF can improve its position in the coming days.

But in West Bengal, it is a different ball game. The Left is in power since 1977 and there is little challenge. In the 2006 assembly elections, the LF got 235 out of the total of 294 seats; nobody could think of such a big jolt for the Left even two years ago. But the situation started changing in favour of Mamata after the developments in Nandigram where the police killed 14 farmers who were protesting against the acquisition of land by the government for industries. This movement of the farmers against the acquisition of land by the government became widespread and Mamata skillfully channelised the anger of the farming community against the highhandedness of the state government. Chief Minister Buddhadev Bhattacharya could not gauge the mood of rural Bengal; the CPI-M cadres misled him into believing that by mobilising its organisational strength, the CPI-M will be able to contain the anger and retain the support base among the rural masses.

While the LF government and the party cadres were alienating themselves from the rural masses, Mamata successfully formed a wide front bringing on board the disgruntled people who were angry with the CPI-M but not getting an outlet to ventilate their grievances. Mamata's ”Ma Mati Manush” slogan appealed to many intellectuals in Bengal and her movement became the platform for forces which wanted to take on the CPI-M and the state government. A large number of CPI-M supporters who left the party for different reasons and were inactive, took active part in Mamata's movement. Also, the Maoists who were looking for a good opportunity to strike against the state government, trooped in. The movement acquired a wider dimension and the campaign focussed on “paribaratan” (change) meaning the verdict in the Lok Sabha elections will facilitate the process of change in the government in the state after some time.

Since the assembly elections are scheduled for 2011, the loss of mandate by the LF, especially the CPI-M to Mamata's alliance, means that the movement for change will gather momentum in the coming days and the LF administration will find it difficult to deal with the increased tempo of Mamata's campaigning. The stage is set now for Mamata's movement for change in the Government in West Bengal. The nature of the movement will however depend on the stand to be taken by the Congress high command on this delicate issue.

For the CPI-M, its earlier bargaining power with the Government is gone since the new Government will not be dependent at all on the Left. The UPA with its committed Fourth front support is in majority. This will help Mamata since the new government will be under no pressure from the CPI-M. Further, TC will be a part of the new government; and Mamata, as a senior leader of the UPA, will be able to take measures which will help her party in West Bengal in the coming days.

As of now, it is advantage Mamata. But in politics, the same situation does not remain for long. The Left has lost this battle. But Left is a long-term player and it is high time it took a close look at the developments to find out what went wrong and take immediate corrective steps. Compared to 2004, the situation has radically changed. And the changed situation requires new tactics and strategy on the part of the Left. The Left has to first identify what went wrong in West Bengal and take remedial measures. Otherwise, the state government will also be lost. That will be the moment of truth for the CPI-M. (IPA)