The election results would provide a clearer picture about the general public mood of the people as to how they would be going to vote in the coming general election of the country, and what would be the prospect of PM Narendra Modi of returning to power.
Among these five states, three are in the Hindi heartland from where BJP derives its strength. These states are Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Retaining Madhya Pradesh, and winning Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh would be import for the BJP especially after humiliating defeat in Karnataka Vidhan Sabha election recently. BJP is left with little prospect of gaining political foothold in the Southern States.
Mizoram is the only northeastern state going to polls, but it is not politically significant at the national level, because there is only one Lok Sabha seat in this state.
In Telengana the contest is going to be very interesting as it would be a multi-corner fight.
Of the three Hindi-speaking states, the BJP currently rules only in Madhya Pradesh whereas Congress is in power in the remaining two states of Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Telengana is ruled by a local regional party named Bharat Rashtra Samiti.
In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has been in power since 2003. In previous assembly polls in MP the Congress managed to wrest power but the BJP returned by effecting defection in the Congress. However, this time the party seems to be in trouble on account of anti-incumbency. People's mood appears against the ruling party because it has messed up with the state economy.
Though both the parties are facing trouble from within, the BJP's power struggle seems more serious than the opposition Congress because, the high command of the ruling party seems to have decided to put a fresh face to counter a strong anti-incumbency that has been prevailing against the chief minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan. Both prime minister Narendra Modi and Union Minister of Home Amit Shah are in favour of projecting Jyotiraditya Scindia as chief minister this time. However, the move has met with strong opposition by Chauhan who, if denied another term, has potential to cut party's vote bank because he has been ruling a state for last 20 years and has a strong support base that cannot be ignored.
Similarly, in Rajasthan the main challenge for the BJP is to handle Vashundhra Raje Scindia because without her support, it is not easy for the BJP to oust the government of Ashok Gehlot of the Congress party. Modi and Shah don't have friendly relations with Vasundhra and bent upon to replace her despite knowing fully that she controls large number of party MLAs. Interestingly, she is on very good terms with Gehlot, who himself had recently claimed that she helped him in retaining power when Sachin Pilot had revolted first, which she had denied. However, she has also been instrumental in blocking Pilot's entry into the BJP fold. This equation is the reason behind high command refraining from projecting any alternative to counter Vasundhara’s political clout in the state.
The banner of revolt that Pilot has been raising time and again has very little political significance because he is said to have influence in only 14 assembly constituencies whereas Gehlot is quite a popular political figure who has the capacity to bring Congress back to power. The Congress leadership is aware of this fact and precisely for that reason Gehlot continues to rule the state. In these circumstances, the outcome of Rajasthan assembly polls can easily be described as unpredictable.
In Chhattisgarh, Congress seems to be better placed not because Baghel government has done miracles during his rule but the failure of the BJP on two counts: first failing to keep its leaders together and secondly failing to project a popular leader. The entry of one of the most popular leaders of the BJP in state Nand Kumar Sai in the congress has caused a serious damage to the party as it has already dumped its two time chief minister Raman Singh. The central leadership of the BJP seems careless about the fate of this tribal state and Congress is better placed by virtue of BJP complacency.
In southern Telengana that goes to poll later this year, there is likely to be a multi-cornered contest because all political parties so far have not entered into any election alliance. The ruling Bharat Rashtra Samiti might get electoral benefit of the contest because here BJP is relatively a small party that has no electoral alliance partner. The Congress is also facing the same situation, but it has more strength in comparison than BJP because of its old roots in the region. The third entrant is the YSRCP that is presently ruling Andhra Pradesh and for being part of earlier united Andhra Pradesh it might stand second.
FIVE STATES POLLS THIS YEAR MAKE BJP WORRIED
CONGRESS' PROSPECT BRIGHTENS IN HINDI HEARTLAND
Kushal Jeena - 2023-05-15 18:09
Five states of the country going to polls by the end of this year has started making worried in the backdrop of Karnataka debacle of the BJP led by PM Narendra Modi, since the outcome of assembly elections in these crucial states would have bearing on the Lok Sabha 2024 elections.