A close look at the results and their contributory factors will help to crystal-gaze their likely impact on the three states politics. .

In Punjab, the Congress has increased its tally from 2004's two to eight. The ruling Akali Dal and its ally BJP which had won eight and three of the state's 13 seats respectively five years ago, secured only four and one seats. In Haryana, the Congress has made phenomenal gains by bagging nine seats out of the state's ten, the same as in 2004. The Om Parkash Chautala-led INLD-BJP alliance has been completely wiped out. In Himachal Pradesh, the BJP has won three of the state's four seats thereby reversing the 2004 Congress-BJP's 3:1 count. The Congress has retained Chandigarh UT's lone seat.

The context calls for briefly repeating the factors mainly responsible for Akali-BJP's setback. Anti-incumbency generated by the government's non-performance and misgovernance, widely prevalent impression of centralisation of powers by the Badal family and Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh's autocratic style of functioning as reflected in the rigging and booth capturing by his supporters during the local bodies and the treatment meted out to the followers of Dera Sacha Sauda acted as spoilers for the ruling alliance. Politicians forget that excesses always recoil on their perpetrators as had happened to Indira Gandhi for committing excesses during Emergency and to Haryana INLD supremo Om Parkash Chautala for adopting vindictive and repressive measures during his Chief Ministership.

Beside anti-incumbency, three other factors also helped the faction-ridden Congress to score its victories by denting the Akalis and the BJP's support bases. One, generous freebies and benefits given by Manmohan Singh-led UPA government to various sections of people. Two, Congress high command entrusting the responsibility of the party's campaign to Capt. Amarinder Singh, a known fighter, whose “Offence is the best Defence” strategy paid dividends. Three, Prime Minister being a Sikh. Though the slogan did help the Congress garner more Sikh votes, it is ironical that claiming to be a secular party the Congress played the communal card.

It is not that the top Akali leadership was unaware of the adverse fallout of above factors on the alliance's electoral fortunes. The Chief Minister had unwittingly betrayed Akali leadership's fears when he said that Lok Sabha polls outcome would not be a referendum on his government's functioning or Sukhbir's leadership. Capt. Kanwaljit Singh, former Cooperation Minister and Akali Dal's visionary ideologue foresaw his party's fate when he said a few days before his death in an accident that Lok Sabha polls would be a litmus test for Sukhbir's leadership. His prediction had raised many an eyebrow in the party.

Contrary to the wishes of some Punjab Congress leaders, the ruling alliance's electoral setback is not likely to destabilise its government at least till Parkash Singh Badal is at the helm of affairs. Though dissensions in Akali Dal and between the alliance partners have been growing, compulsions of power politics may keep the two allies bound together.

The Congress' impressive electoral victory in Haryana despite some of its ministers and MLAs abstaining from campaigning can be attributed to two major factors: Hooda government's good performance and its giving generous sops to all sections of people particularly the Jat-dominated farming community and populous measures of the UPA government. Bhupinder Singh Hooda's image of a gentleman politician and his amiable nature took care of the negative impact, if any, of the mild anti-incumbency sentiment.

Despite these factors, the general expectation was that the Congress may not get more than 6-7 seats while the remaining seats would be shared by INLD-BJP (2-3), Haryana Janhit Congress (one) and BJP (one). But except JHC leader Bhajan Lal's win with just about 7000 votes from his home constituency of Hissar the party drew a blank. The BSP's hopes of getting at least one seat also did not materialise though the party was able to cause some damage to Congress in some constituencies.

Whenever Devi Lal clan's party and the BJP had jointly fought elections in Haryana, they virtually swept the polls. But their present election-eve alliance not winning any seat losing even Bhiwani-Mahendergarh from where Chautala's son and political heir Ajay Chautala was the candidate, BJP drawing a blank and Bhajan Lal winning with a slender margin has created a situation for new political alignments in the state. Now when L.K. Advani who was mainly instrumental in forging his party's alliance with Chautala despite strong opposition from the BJP's state cadres, has lost the opportunity of becoming Prime Minister, the continuance of the INLD-BJP alliance is likely to be again questioned. How long will the HJC be able to retain its separate entity will also be keenly watched.

The Congress victory both at the Centre and in the state has raised the question of the party going in for early elections of Haryana Assembly otherwise due in early 2010. When asked if he would opt for mid-term poll, Hooda described the question hypothetical.

Although Himachal Pradesh is known for generally helping victors of Assembly elections to also win Lok Sabha poll, two major factors also contributed to the saffron party's win even in Congress's traditional stronghold of Shimla. One was the virtual absence of anti-incumbency factor against the 16-month old Prem Singh Dhumal-led BJP government. The second was acute factionalism in the Congress which resulted in the party's failure to undertake a systematic and effective campaign and its failure to come out with a substantive and convincing 'chargesheet' promised by the leadership against the Dhumal government. Even the party's only mass leader former Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh had to fight his own battle and winning with a margin of only about 14,000 from Mandi. His wife had won the seat in 2004 by a big margin.

The Congress's biggest task in the coming period will be closing its ranks to use the opportunities that arise due to the expected emergence of anti-incumbency sentiment during the remaining years of BJP rule.

The challenge before the Dhumal ministry would be to speed up the pace of state's development without confining itself to criticising the Centre which has already given several ambitious projects to the state. (IPA Service)