So the Patna conclave, convened by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, should see the opposition leaders in an optimistic mood, as after a long gap, there is a new narrative taking root in the country that the BJP can be defeated despite the magic of Modi. But even a favourable environment can go haywire if the opposition leaders go ecstatic and ignore some of the hard realities, while undertaking discussions on alliances. Some sources say that the Bihar CM as the host is proposing one-on-one fight between BJP and the opposition in 475 out of the total of 543 Lok Sabha constituencies. Nitish must have made his own studies. But the political reality is that there cannot be any uniform formula of alliance applicable throughout the country. It will vary from state to state. The regional parties will not give up their power bases to a national party just for the sake of defeating BJP in Lok Sabha elections. These parties will take care of their future also.

So that way, the best course for the opposition is to divide the states into five categories and make all efforts to avoid the division of the anti-BJP votes in the Lok Sabha elections. What should be kept in mind is that this strategy should be applicable only for Lok Sabha elections. In the coming state assembly elections, the Congress and the regional parties may contest against each other, as also BJP, to identify their respective strength, on the basis of which negotiations can take place for seat-sharing before the Lok Sabha elections.

The first category should include the states where the opposition alliance is already working. These are Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand and Maharashtra. Out of these four, the opposition is ruling in the first three. In the fourth state, Maharashtra, the MVA is working fine. If the leaders feel like it, they can co-opt the two left parties CPI and the CPI(M) for further strengthening the MVA.

The second category include the states where the Congress is the main challenger to the BJP. In these states, the Congress will be the decider in respect of alliances. These states are Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Haryana. Now, the Congress has 52 seats in Lok sabha and in 2019 polls, the Congress was second in 209 seats. So the Congress has the full right to contest in minimum 261 seats out of 543 seats in Lok Sabha.

The third category comprises states where the regional parties will fight both the Congress and the BJP, since the regional parties are stronger there. These states are West Bengal, Kerala, Punjab, Delhi and Telangana. In Bengal, it will be futile to try for the one-on-one formula. Trinamool Congress will try to get the maximum number of seats in 2024 polls out of the total of 42. The Left Front and the Congress may jointly fight both the TMC and the BJP in the polls. In Punjab and Delhi, it will be difficult for AAP and the Congress to come to any understanding against the BJP. There is every possibility that the AAP and the Congress will fight separately. In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front and the Congress will fight for the Lok sabha seats. Left will make all efforts to raise its tally, but in any case, both the Congress and the Left are part of the opposition. So the total seats will remain the same. In Telangana, the BRS will fight against both the BJP and the Congress. BRS is not attending the June 12 conclave. So it seems that its grouse against the Congress remains. The regional leaders of the opposition have to bring BRS to their side after the Lok Sabha elections.

The fourth category of states comprises Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. These ruling parties are not with the opposition. The Congress will fight in these states against both the respective regional party — YSRCP in AP and BJD in Odisha — apart from the BJP. It is the duty of the regional leaders, especially Nitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee, to persuade them to support the opposition after the Lok Sabha elections, if there is a hung Lok Sabha.

The fifth category comprises the Northeastern States, which have 25 Lok Sabha seats, including 14 in Assam. In Assam, Congress is the leading party against the BJP, but it should carry out meaningful discussions with the Trinamool, other anti-BJP local parties, as also the CPI and the CPI(M) for challenging the BJP, which is headed in the state by a shrewd politician in Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. In Tripura, the Left is the main force against the BJP and it is in alliance with the Congress against the BJP. But that is not enough. Still, there is a possibility to talk to Tipra Motha and bring them into opposition. The Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has to talk to TM head Pradyot Manikya, who has still not finally aligned with the BJP. Tripura has two LS seats; a strong alliance of Left, the Congress and TM can easily secure both the LS seats in 2024 polls, defeating the BJP which presently holds both the seats.

Other states in the northeast are Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. The Congress has to talk to the anti-BJP regional parties for forming an alliance. The regional ruling parties have the habit of aligning with the ruling party at the centre. So, even if the opposition fails to get them before the Lok Sabha elections, situation may change if the BJP fails to get majority in the 2024 polls.

Uttar Pradesh is a separate case. Samajwadi Party is the leading opposition party fighting the BJP in the state. UP has 80 Lok Sabha seats. Already Amit Shah has set the target of 70 seats for the state BJP, which has launched a vigorous campaign against the main opposition SP. Congress is still not a relevant force in the state, getting only just above 2 percent votes in the last state assembly elections. SP can negotiate with the Congress if it wants and if there is some understanding before Lok Sabha polls, it is good. Otherwise, UP can witness contests between SP and the Congress excepting possibly two seats, which SP may offer to the Congress. Rahul Gandhi has his ideas of revamping the Congress in UP. So if the Congress decides to contest maximum number of seats, the party can do so at its own risk.

In sum, the opposition parties must participate in the June 12 meeting with the clear objective of how best to defeat the BJP and its partners in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. If the objective is shared, ways can be found out on how to implement that on the ground, taking into account the long-term interests of all the participants. In 2024, prospects look much better compared to 2019 Lok Sabha polls, but utmost caution is needed as Prime Minister Narendra Modi does not like to be defeated. (IPA Service)