The crack in the BJP-JJP alliance is significant since the BJP could form its government after October 2019 Vidhan Sabha election in the state only in post-poll alliance with the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) and 7 independent MLAs. BJP could emerge merely as the largest political party by winning just 40 seats out of 90 in the Vidhan Sabha. It was a great shocker to the BJP, since it had won all 10 Lok Sabha seats from the state in election held just five months before in May 2019.

The shock to BJP was devastating in terms of its vote share which considerably fell from 58.21 per cent in the May Lok Sabha election to only 36.49 per cent within five months in October Vidhan Sabha election, which marked the considerable fall in the BJP’s support base in the state.

In this given background both the elections to the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha in 2024 are of utmost importance since PM Narendra Modi would be seeking reelection for the third term and he cannot afford to lose even a single seat from the state. On the contrary, BJP would be struggling to retain its seats even in the Vidhan Sabha with a dwindling support base.

Emergence of cracks in the BJP-JJP alliance will be an additional trouble for the BJP, which has now come in the open. Only a week ago, the JJP MLA from Shahabad Ram Karan Kala has resigned as chairman of Sugarfed (Haryana State Federation of Cooperative Sugar Mills Limited) in protest against caning (lathi-charge) of farmers demanding MSP for the sunflower crop that left several wounded.

An agreement has been reached between the protesting farmers and the government, and it has been announced by the leaders of JJP and BJP that Kala would take his resignation back, but it is no guarantee that the bitterness created among the farmers against the ruling BJP or BJP-JJP alliance would cease in the near future.

In the meantime, CM Khattar, Deputy CM and JJP leader Dushyant Chautala, and JJP national president Ajay Singh Chautala have said that BJP-JJP alliance would continue, but in a fast-changing ground reality against the ruling combine can belie their claim, since JJP cannot then opt for political ruin of the self.

Ajay Chautala has said that BJP-JJP alliance is important to keep the Congress out of power in Haryana. It just indicates rising political fortune of the Congress in the state which is chief opponent of both the JJP and BJP. However, the statements of leaders from both JJP and BJP suggest a rough patch to become worse. Recent moves and statements of Haryana BJP in-charge Biplab Kumar Deb could be taken as example. He has been speaking against the JJP. Dejected and disappointed BJP leaders are speaking against JJP and the BJP-JJP coalition, Ajay Chautala has admitted, while asserting that BJP is their natural ally. Everything was smooth until recently.

BJP and the JJP had separately contested 2019 Vidhan Sabah election in the state, and won 40 and 10 seats respectively. INLD, from which JJP had come out after a split, had won only one seat. Congress was able to win 31 seats. In 2014 Vidhan Sabah election BJP had won 47, INLD 19, and Congress 15 seats. The rise of Congress between the two Vidhan Sabha elections, and the fall of political fortune of INLD and BJP is obvious. JJP could not take the status of its parent political organization INLD, and the anger of farmers of the state against the BJP may further erode the support base of JJP in the forthcoming election.

JJP had gained 14.84 per cent of votes in 2019 Vidhan Sabha election, while INLD could gain only 2.44 per cent of votes. Prior to split, INLD had gained 24.11 per cent of votes. BJP leaders have been signalling the JJP leasers that they don’t need JJP’s support now, the primary reason for this is that BJP cannot afford any Lok Sabha seat to concede to JJP, which would like to contest a few. The BJP-JJP alliance seems hit a ticklish issue.

Then there are talks of merger of the JJP-INLD to be achieved soon with the efforts of former CM and INLD leader Om Prakash Chautala. Ajay Chautala has admitted that intervention of Om Prakash Chautala could make the merger possible. It should be noted that INLD was split in 2018 after a bitter power struggle between the two grandsons of Devi Lal the Deputy prime minister of India – Ajay Chautala and Abhay Chautala, the two sons of the party president Om Prakash Chautala. Om Prakash Chautala then threw his weight behind Abhay. Dushyant Chautala, the son of Ajay Chautala, then formed JJP in December 2018. With Om Prakash Chautala now out of jail, is reported to be trying to unite JJP and INLD.

In brief, political scenario seems to be uncertain in the state. BJP has both national and regional aspirations, while JJP’s regional aspirations becoming stronger day by day. Double anti-incumbency seems to be operating against BJP, and hence rift within the BJP-JJP alliance. The Congress under Bhupinder Singh Hooda is upbeat after the success in nearby Himachal Pradesh and also in recent elections in Karnataka. The Congress high command is determined to get maximum seats from Haryana in the Lok Sabha polls. All together, prospects are not rosy for the BJP in the state in the coming Lok Sabha polls. (IPA Service)