While the Prime Minister was said to be keeping the seat warm for Rahul Gandhi, it is unclear for whom Advani is keeping the seat warm in the Lok Sabha. His problem is that he has to keep on batting for, if he is out, then there will be a furious scramble in the party's pavilion about the next batsman.

It was to avoid such a row that Advani was apparently advised stay on. But the remedy only highlighted the disease. As is known, the BJP has always been a two-man party centred around Atal Behari Vajpayee and Advani from its Jan Sangh days. Now that the former, who was the indisputable No. 1, has retired, Advani remains the only one who can hold the party together. In his absence, the rivalries between the different aspirants for the top post will be quite disastrous for the party's image, especially in the context of its claims to be disciplined.

A taste of such feuds was available during the run-up to the elections in the spat between Rajnath Singh and Arun Jaitley. It was quickly patched up so that no damage would be caused to its reputation. But the post-Advani scene cannot but be different since the succession cannot be put off forever. Whoever takes charge, however, will not only have to prevent fissures in the BJP, but will also have to keep the NDA afloat. Present indications are that both tasks will be equally difficult.

In the BJP, it is not easy to see the losers among the main contenders, who include Murli Manohar Joshi, Narendra Modi and Rajnath Singh, congratulating the winner with an open heart. Neither Joshi nor Singh has the pleasantness of Vajpayee or the long organizational experience of Advani to be able to keep a restive flock together. Modi, of course, will be persona non grata to the NDA even if he is acceptable to the BJP rank and file, though not to the RSS.

Already, Sharad Yadav has ascribed the NDA's defeat to the projection of Modi as a possible successor to Advani. Although the latter later tried to mollify the dissenters, including Sushma Swaraj, by saying that the BJP had several prime ministers in waiting, such as Shivraj Chauhan, the damage to the party's and the NDA's prospects had already been done, according to the JD (U) leader. Incidentally, Modi was also held responsible for the BJP's defeat in 2004 by Vajpayee. So, the Gujarat strong man has now been blamed for both the setbacks.

It is obvious that for all the praise which Modi's supporters heap on him as the Hindu hriday samrat and vikas purush, the shadow of the riots continues to follow him. As a result, he is not a favourite within the NDA. It is not only the JD (U), which is averse to him, even the Shiv Sena seems to have strong reservations. It is worth noting that the saffron camp did not gain from Modi's campaigns in Mumbai. Evidently, the old Marathi-Gujarati rift hasn't disappeared with the creation of the two states.

More than Modi, however, the non-BJP constituents of the NDA will be worried about Varun Gandhi. The new stormy petrel of the party may have been advised to watch his tongue, but he has already made more blunders than any other new entrant into politics. What is more, if his denials - whether about the anti-Muslim remarks or about coercive family planning measures a la Sanjay Gandhi - do not carry much conviction, the reason is that he is seen as very much the son of Sanjay Gandhi, the first enfant terrible of Indian politics.

Sharad Yadav hasn't blamed Modi alone, but also Varun. The JD (U) is also aware that there is a section in the BJP and in the Sangh parivar who largely share their views. It is anybody's guess, therefore, as to how long the NDA will last in its present form. The cancellation of its first meeting may have been due to genuine reasons, but there are not a few who will see it as an ominous example of the morning showing the day. The NDA lost two major constituents - the BJD in Orissa and Trinamool Congress in West Bengal - before the elections. Subsequently, Nitish Kumar's position in the alliance did not appear too secure in the context of his observation that he would support only that party which accorded a special status to Bihar.

Apart from the JD (U) and the Akali Dal, the NDA's other members are not always dependable. This is true even of the Shiv Sena, which voted against the NDA's presidential candidate, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, and supported Sharad Pawar's claims to be the Prime Minister. Others such as the RLD, the INLD and the AGP are fair weather friends who may not stay in the NDA for long since the weather for the group is decidedly cloudy. (IPA Service)