On Sunday, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) split after Pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar two-timed the uncle and gave Prime Minister Narendra Modi a pyrrhic victory. Sharad Pawar tweeted: "Some of my colleagues have taken a different stand." All of India knows who is behind “some of the leaders”. But this time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi could be bucking greater odds. The opposition unity he fears isn’t going to fall apart. The public has seen through his game. People know the difference between ‘lotus’ and ‘Operation Lotus.

Fact is, ever since Modi returned from his US-Egypt tour, he has been fixated on the one word, “guarantee”. July 2, addressing a crowd in Shahdol in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh, the Prime Minister cautioned the people from “getting fooled by fake guarantees”. The BJP’s problem is Modi cannot get over the role of Congress party’s “five guarantees” in the BJP’s Karnataka assembly elections loss.

Now, the Congress has offered similar guarantees in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh and there will be a similar strategy in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, too. The BJP fears defeats. The saffron party is apprehensive 2024 could be Modi's year of reckoning. So, addressing BJP workers in Bhopal, Modi spoke of “my own guarantee”, which was a promise to send “corrupt opposition politicians” to jail.

The Prime Minister’s guarantee was a warning, dog-whistling. A promise to unleash the central investigating agencies if opposition parties posed a threat to Modi's third term. It was a sign of party and government cracking under the pressure of unprecedented opposition unity. The Patna Conclave was a “success”. A second one in Bengaluru was in the pipeline. These were desperate times and called for desperate measures. The heist in the NCP was meant to shock and awe.

The fact is the rebellion was a total surprise. Sharad Pawar had taken over the leadership of the opposition’s unity efforts. It was Sharad Pawar who shifted the next opposition conclave from Shimla to Bengaluru, which reminded Modi of only “defeat”. Sharad Pawar’s standing stood in the BJP’s way. Therefore, the split, and with nephew Ajit Pawar right in the middle of it.

Ajit Pawar is no stranger to springing rebellions. There was a failed attempt in 2019. He should have been thrown out of the party in 2019 itself. It was an expensive mistake. The nephew now claims full ownership of the NCP. On Sunday Ajit Pawar also took oath as Deputy Chief Minister. The BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis is also a Deputy Chief Minister.

Ajit Pawar’s entry will queer the pitch for both Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. It was only recently that posters had sprung up everywhere in Maharashtra proclaiming that Chief Minister Eknath Shinde is more popular than Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. Ajit Pawar with “40 NCP MPs” will definitely stake claim for the top post. And Modi and Shah may face a bigger rebellion than the one in NCP.

That said, the NCP split was instigated and directed to impact the 2024 general elections. The Maharashtra assembly elections come later. One thing is certain, the NCP split has diminished Sharad Pawar’s standing inside and outside the NCP. Ajit Pawar took off with Pawar-loyalists Praful Patel and Chhagan Bhujbal. Patel, especially has joined the ranks of Mir Jaffer, Jaichand and Judas. Strangely enough, Sharad Pawar is not even feigning anger at the betrayal. On the contrary, he‘s saying “all is fine in the family” and that “I’ll build up the party from scratch a second time.” Ajit Pawar had led eight other NCP MLAs in taking the oath. Praful Patel will get a central minister’s berth.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has proved once and for all that he’s the glibest of them all. This has left many BJP/Shinde Sena MLAs fuming. They were waiting to become “ministers. Do not be surprised if there isn’t “gharwapsi”, a reverse induction into the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray Sena. There is growing groundswell of support among Shiv Sainiks for UBT. The NCP split has not harmed the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray Sena. If anything the UBT Sena will gain from the break in the NCP and its fallout in the Shinde/Fadnavis/Ajit dispensation.

It is a “triple-engine ki sarkar” in Maharashtra, which will have to reckon with the MVA comprising UBT Sena, Sharad Pawar’s NCP and the Congress. Contrary to BJP’s expectations, the MVA is not going to break up and go up in smoke. The BJP’s fear of the MVA was what made Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister unleash “Modi’s guarantee” on the opposition. Ajit Pawar, Praful Patel and Chhagan Bhujbal, all three were in the crosshairs of the enforcement directorate. Now they’re pure as driven snow. After the split, Modi’s washing machine has taken over and Operation Lotus has acquired an urgency and agency all its own.

The desperation is showing as opposition unity gets cemented and grassroots ground realities change. The Prime Minister is staring at a prospect he is not ready to face or admit. Sharad Pawar may or may not recover from this massive setback to his standing. The octogenarian’s ego has been hurt and there is also the political future of his MP daughter Supriya Sule to consider. Sule is NCP’s Working President and she’s the reason why Ajit Pawar made a pact with the devil. (IPA Service)