While the UPA 2 began with full confidence that the government would complete a full five-year term, the government is shaky after 11 months because of the withdrawal of the SP and the RJD on the issue of women reservation bill. The government is reduced to a thin majority now and is finding it tough to get its bills passed smoothly.

It was because of the Finance Bill, the Congress party had decided to let the Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor go on the IPL controversy. The first half of the budget session saw the government committing some mistakes like trying to bring the food security bill and the nuclear liability bill both of which would have ensured a united opposition blocking them. The second half of the session began with the IPL controversy, which resulted in the resignation of Tharoor, The opposition was pleased that it won the first round.

Why are the Congress managers worried about the number? After the announcement of withdrawal by the SP and the RJD the congress managers claim that it has 271, one short of the majority. This is a critical position and any time, the government can be voted out.

For the past few days the congress strategists are working overtime to run the business in Parliament smoothly. The congress strategy is two pronged. The first is to keep the flock together. The presence of each member is crucial for voting. With several congress members playing truant and not coming to the house, their attendance has become crucial. That is why the party has cracked the whip and directed all the members to be present in Delhi and to be present in the house until the Finance Bill is passed. They are given roaster duty and the whips are asked to make sure that the members abide by the directive.

Secondly, the Prime Minister has asked his ministers not to go abroad or leave Delhi even for official work. Labour minister Mallikarjun Kharge wants to participate in an international conference but has been denied permission. Even Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has cancelled his foreign visit scheduled for later this month. All other ministers have been asked to remain in Delhi and also attend parliament.

Thirdly, the allies will also be asked to ensure the presence of their members. The absence of the Chemicals Minister Azhagiri, who is presently on a holiday in Maldives without even taking permission form the Prime Minister is a little embarrassing but the Prime Minister will ask the DMK chief to ensure the presence of his son during voting.

The IPL controversy has brought the Congress-NCP differences in the open. The two partners have been having a love- hate relationship and embarrass each other frequently. After Pawar publicly ruled out sacking Modi, two senor ministers Pranab Mukherjee and P. Chidambaram showed the incriminating documents to Pawar and forced him to make a U-turn. Pawar's daughter Supriya Sule and Civil Aviation Minister Praful Patel have refuted allegations of their involvement in the IPL bid. A cornered Pawar has made a U-turn and supported the sack Modi demand. Both the NCP chief and the Congress leaders know that they need each other and would not go beyond a limit to needle each other. The Congress needs the eight votes of the NCP for the Finance Bill and that clinches it.

The other part is to see that the opposition is divided. It was the divided opposition which helped on passing the Women's Reservation Bill in Rajya Sabha. But it is going to be difficult in the Lok Sabha on other issues like the price rise or the food security. The BJP is mobilsing a nation -wide support by organising rallies against price rise while the Left has planned a nationwide hartal on April 27. The SP and the RJD are on warpath on the Women's Bill. The Left is leading a loose Third Front to take on the Congress, it is going to be difficult to divide the opposition but the Congress strategists are trying hard to do so. The managers are in touch with various parties like the RJD, BSP, RLD and SP to make deal.

The ultimate hope of the Congress is that these opposition parties are not interested in bringing down the government because no one wants to go for polls now. With this as the bottom-line, the Congress hopes that the opposition will either walk out or in the last minute indirectly help the Bill to be passed. Once the Finance Bill is passed the government can heave a sigh of relief. (IPA Service)