As its leaders deliver pep talk to energise their activists for a trek to 2024 Lok Sabha campaign trail, there is no denial of the fact that participants of such a march will be taking faltering steps. Considered to be a warm up exercise before next year's crucial Lok Sabha elections, the rural polls have bared the chinks in armour of the state saffron camp.

A humiliating defeat occurred in the wake of the absence of BJP rank and file in stirs owing to an inability to shake off the fear of post poll violence that marked the wake of 2021 elections. It's fallout was a steady organisational downslide in the past two years which the state saffron leaders snug in their complacency overlooked.

The signs ranging from a perfunctory participation in mass agitations over issues like cash for teaching jobs and hike in dearness allowance of state government personnel has cost the BJP dearly in the rural polls. Those who had joined the saffron ranks from Left and Congress to escape intimidation and post poll violence traced back their steps to their original outfits even as the CPI(M) stepped into the gap created by the principal Opposition party's absence and returned to the limelight despite having no representation in the state Assembly.

Apparently, even after emerging a poor third in terms of seats in the results of the three-tier rural poll, the Left commands greater influence than the state saffron camp. Truth to tell, it is breathing down the BJP's neck in West Bengal.

An aversion to participate in stirs coupled with sloth in the state unit's organisational muscle had rustled up a recipe of disaster for the state saffron camp. A casual approach to attendance at an organisational camp at Durgapur early this year was arguably one of the first signs of the state of things to come.

The BJP leaders from the national Capital were amazed at the sight of state organisational functionaries making a beeline for the railway station lest they miss their train. It was the final day of the conference and many of the participants were in a hurry to leave though the deliberations were still in progress.

Later fudging figures of attendance and number of conferences organised in the state to reach a target came to the notice of national leadership. Whether a whip was cracked in the form of strong disciplinary action is not known.

But it had a cumulative effect on the rank and file of the party. Its kernel softened and failed to rally round in hours of crisis as in the rural polls.

Having secured a toe hold in the state in the late '90s in an alliance with Trinamool Congress, the BJP was not quite a force to reckon with for years. But the ire of the rural populace who were prevented from exercising their franchise markedly cemented the state BJP's support base in 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

With 18 MPs in the saffron camp, senior BJP leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah kickstarted a hectic election campaign to trounce TMC in the 2021 Assembly elections. If it failed as Trinamool activists rallied around wheelchair bound Mamata Banerjee criss crossing the state with a gammy leg, the saffron front followers were not quite the poor losers.

BJP MLAs were high on enthusiasm when they took their seats in the Opposition benches in the Assembly. After all, they had decimated the Left and the Congress who for the first time since independence did not have a single legislator in the Assembly.

But the energy associated with emergence as the principal Opposition party fizzled out in intra party squabbles and a marked tendency of a large section of the state leadership to rest on its oars. Meanwhile, even as a Trinamool riddled with corruption charges effected course correction with a slew of social benefit schemes, the state BJP continued to be oblivious.

The fall outs were all there to see as poll results showed voters at BJP's dependable support bases in north Bengal districts, Jungle Mahal and North-24-Parganas have switched their loyalty to Trinamool Congress. Having failed to ride the crest of anti-incumbency wave against TMC in 2021, parroting charges of intimidation before the fact finding team recently sent by BJP's central leadership in West Bengal will do the party organisation or morale no good.

Small wonder, alarm bells have started ringing in the saffron camp after its vote share slumped to around 23 per cent after the rural polls. The fall in BJP's vote share earlier in the state has been slow but perceptible with about 41 per cent in 2019 Lok Sabha polls to 38 per cent in 2021 Assembly election.

Instead of fixing the blame for the sharp downslide in vote share, the BJP leadership feels most of the 19 per cent votes in the Left Congress kitty has been taken from the saffron vote bank. Strangely enough, it is not looking into the real cause of its vote erosion.

Putting up a brave face, party ideologue Bimal Shankar Nanda is looking forward to a repeat of the 2019 Lok Sabha voting pattern in the coming parliamentary elections next year. After all, there is no denying the fact that many voters who were prevented from exercising their franchise in the rural polls will vote for us next year, he said. But the ground reality of the BJP organization is in such poor state that there is no possibility of repeat of 2019 whatever the BJP leaders say.

What Nanda left unsaid was that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah will not be campaign solely in West Bengal in the backdrop of the nationwide campaign they would be engaged in country wide campaign before Lok Sabha polls next year. This would make a crucial difference next year vis-a-vis 2021 Assembly elections.

Both Trinamool and Left leaders are looking forward to further erosion in BJP vote share. Agreeing for once, veteran TMC leader and minister Sovandeb Chattopadhayay and senior CPI(M) leader Sujan Chakraborty felt that BJP will cease to be a significant political force in West Bengal post 2024Lok Sabha elections.

A week is a long time in politics. But given the state of party organisation and activists morale, bucking the downslide in its support base in West Bengal before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls seems to be a tall order for the BJP. (IPA Service)