There is also discomfort in the Shinde Shiv Sena and talk spiraled that Shinde was looking forward to tendering his resignation. There were reports of “displeasure” among Sena MLAs and BJP leaders covering up for the Shiv Sena with affirmations that Shinde was not going anywhere and would remain Chief Minister.

The reality is Eknath Shinde’s standing in the coalition diminished when Ajit Pawar joined the Shinde-Fadnavis government. Ajit Pawar is now Deputy Chief Minister along with Devendra Fadnavis. Shiv Sena leader Uday Samant, in an attempt at damage control, said Eknath Shinde will lead the ruling coalition in all future elections.

BJP’s Maharashtra unit president Chandrashekhar Bawankule seconded Samant. But reports of “displeasure among MLAs” over Ajit Pawar’s Deputy Chief Minister-ship prevailed. More importantly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah cannot be trusted. Give them an inch and a yard will go missing!

Let’s just say Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s position remains precarious. The one-time auto-rickshaw driver will have to keep an eye on the road for potholes. It’s not just Ajit Pawar who has an overpowering yearning for the CM’s chair, Devendra Fadnavis is also a threat.

Fadnavis considers himself rightful claimant to the CM’s post, “cheated” not once but twice. And both times because of Ajit Pawar. The NCP turncoat is bad medicine for Fadnavis. That said, Ajit Pawar must have been brought into the Eknath Shinde-BJP fold by the Bharatiya Janata Party.

What if tomorrow, the BJP demands the top post? Shinde cannot threaten a walkout. Not when there’s Ajit’s NCP to fall back on. Also, why should the BJP go into the 2024 general elections, and the assembly polls thereafter, playing second fiddle to Chief Minister’s Shinde’s Shiv Sena?

Again, what if the two Senas patch-up? Shiv Sena cadre and the diehard Shiv Sena votebank may persuade Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde to forget differences and return the “original Shiv Sena” to its lost glory? There are a bunch of possibilities.

For example, political dynamics are constantly changing. Both the BJP+ alliance and the emerging opposition “Mahagathbandhan” are morphing and which party will go where is hard to keep up with. The nervousness is showing in the news cycle and reflected in the headlines. Maharashtra with Mumbai as its prize is crucial for both political fronts.

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde cannot seem to be able to hide the nervousness. His meeting with MNS Chief Raj Thackeray made headlines and then there were reports of his meetings with his two “deputies”. Now, he has launched a "Jansampark Abhiyan" from his native Thane City. When a Chief Minister decides to “meet his people” it says many things. Shinde is looking for people’s approval and his ratings.

And he’s doing it alone. Neither of the two deputy chief ministers have been invited. Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar and the eight NCP MLAs who joined the Shinde Council of Ministers have galvanized the Shiv Sena. Shinde is scheduled to meet Shiv Sena leaders, party workers all over Maharashtra. And he will address public meetings everywhere; does Chief Minister Eknath Shinde want to steal a march over Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar? How many Lok Sabha and how many assembly seats the Shinde Shiv Sena wins will decide his party’s future.

Next year’s general and assembly elections are the main reason for Shinde’s statewide tour. However, it is not clear if the Shinde Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar’s NCP and the BJP will present a broad front or fight the elections as separate entities. The manner in which the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance ended is still fresh in the mind. In fact, there wouldn’t be two ‘Senas’ at all if there wasn’t an alliance.

Shinde continues to claim that he has nothing to worry about. UBT Sena leader Aditya Thackeray tried to scare, saying “Shinde has been asked to resign”, but that was mischief afoot. Shinde insists nobody in his Shiv Sena is “unhappy”. The Chief Minister blames "rumours spread by opposition". The problem is Shinde can neither trust the BJP nor Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Which party will be on top of the other two in 2024 – which will be at the bottom – and which will be stuck on the middle rung will decide Shinde’s future? (IPA Service)