The RSS said it first, i.e., “Prime Minister Narendra Modi will not be able to give the BJP a clear shot at victory in 2024”. Also, opposition parties’ manoeuvring for unity to take on Modi – “make or break” – has lent urgency to “revive NDA”, but it isn’t easy – breathing life into the nearly comatose NDA.

The BJP’s arrogance and suspicion in the allies that the saffron party was out to break smaller parties, whether friend or foe, made it difficult for erstwhile partners to trust the BJP. Longtime ally Shiv Sena is the best-case example – the BJP split Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena to form the government in Maharashtra with Eknath Shinde’s breakaway Shiv Sena. Today, Shinde owns the Shiv Sena with full BJP support.

The prized catch for the NDA, however, remains the NCP led by Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, who broke up with Uncle Sharad Pawar and joined hands with the BJP and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena. Ajit Pawar’s NCP and Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s ‘Shiv Sena’ are both by default part of the NDA. Maharashtra has 48 Lok Sabha seats and Modi wants at least 47! If the opposition parties are united, the Maha Vikas Aghadi poses a formidable front.

Then, there’s Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (U), which also expected a similar BJP maneuver. Nitish Kumar broke the alliance with the BJP and joined Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD to remain in power. Lalu has promised to put Narendra Modi in his place and replace him with Rahul Gandhi come 2024. Lalu is a prominent member of the opposition alliance and usually delivers the promised goods!

Bihar also contributes a sizable number of Lok Sabha seats. But the BJP is unsure if it will get its expected tally. Especially, when Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is no longer a BJP ally. Therefore, the need for the NDA. But there are only small parties. Chirag Paswan’s LJP. Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party and Sanjay Nishad’s ‘Nishad Party’ against RJD+JD(U)+Congress. The NDA in Bihar looks weak and infirm.

The Akali Dal – a staunch BJP ally was a prominent NDA member before suspicion struck a jarring note – also broke ties and went its own way, contesting the Punjab assembly elections solo without the BJP tied to its apron-strings. There were reports of fresh BJP overtures and a possible tie-up but an Akali Dal spokesman said there was no invitation for the NDA meet from BJP President JP Nadda, whose job it will be to make the NDA meet a success.

Elsewhere in Bihar, Ramvilas Paswan’s heir Chirag Paswan is another prized catch for the weakened NDA. Whoever would have thought that a one-man party would be so much sought after! Imagine how desperate the BJP must be for wanting to revive the NDA. Then again, it could be a red herring – Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah are usually not prone to leaving a single stone unturned.

So Modi and Shah are hunting allies where there are few available, especially when ground realities speak of a potential downturn to the BJP’s electoral fortunes. The upcoming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan will make or dent whatever is left of the NDA, whether there will be one for general elections 2024?

The fact is, the BJP is acutely aware of the import of the July 17-18 Bengaluru opposition unity meeting. And there is talk that the BJP has sent invitations to former NDA allies and 19 political parties promised attendance including the Ajit Pawar-led NCP and Hindustani Awam Morcha of Jitan Ram Manjhi.

Parliament’s Monsoon Session begins on July 20 but the NDA meet has nothing to do with Parliament. The NDA meet is solely to discuss the 2024 general elections with reviving the brain-dead NDA at its core. Contributing to the urgency is the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not happy with the BJP’s preparedness for 2024 and, bravado apart, he has taken the RSS’s conclusion for 2024 general elections seriously.

Compared to the formidable line-up of opposition parties comprising the “mahagathbandhan”, the NDA – as it is today – is hardly worth its acronym. It looks healthy only in a few geographies. “Down south” there are a multitude of impregnable gaps! The NDA is meeting for the first time in this second term of Modi and it might be already too late. Somehow, the BJP is not its old self anymore. There is something lacking and it could be more than just Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s double anti-incumbency. (IPA Service)