The election results for both the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha in the last one decade since 2014, shows very high fluctuation in vote share of the political parties, and hence neither the BJP nor the opposition can be rest assured for their success in the forthcoming Lok Sabah election 2024. To make sure their respective advantage over the other both the BJP and the chief opposition Samajwadi Party (SP) is in urgent need of broadening and strengthening their alliances, and they have been working hard in this direction.

The last election in the state was Vidhan Sabha election 2022, in which NDA has three political parties – the BJP, Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD), and Apna Dal (Soneylal)ie AD(S). Despite the alliance BJP was reduced from 309 seats in 2017 to 255. AD(S) increased its tally from 9 to 12, and NISHAD from 1 to 6. BJP had won 71 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha election but could win only 62 in 2019. Anti-incumbency against BJP is clear from the decline of BJP seen int the results of the last one decade.
In terms of share of votes, BJP’s vote share in the state in 2014 was 42.63 per cent which rose to 49.98 thanks to Pulwama attack in 2019 with reduced number of seats from 71 to 62, which shows that increase in BJP’s votes share was chiefly on the seats where they were dominant but losing share of votes in all other seats. BJP’s vote share in 2017 election was only 39.67 per cent showing a fall in its vote of share from 2014, and it rose to only 41.29 per cent in 2022, which is much lower than 2019, and still lower than 2014. Danger lies ahead for BJP is clear and hence the party is not only strengthening its ties with current alliance partners but also talking to other parties and leaders and has opened its doors for them. Some of them have already joined the BJP and some small political parties may join the NDA.

In Uttar Pradesh, as per the election results 2022, there are only 9 political parties to reckon with who have won seats. No independent could win any seat in the state and hence it is clear that voters in the state have abhorrence against independents. They vote decisively for one or the other political parties or alliances. Only three of these parties of reckoning are in NDA.

The six others political parties with support base among voters are in opposition, but unfortunately, they are still not united. Among them, the SP is the largest that had won 111 seats in the Vidhan Sabha election 2022 increasing its tally from 47 in 2017. SP’s votes share was 21.82 per cent in 2017, which has sharply risen to 32.06 per cent in 2022. It has given rise to an irrational hope in the SP leadership, that they are now in a position to take on the BJP in the state singlehandedly.

Since BJP’s support base is still revolving around 40 per cent, SP’s hope may shatter if it does not open up for alliance with other political parties. SP must take note of the other five opposition political parties and their seats in the Vidhan Sabha – BSP (1), INC (2), JDL (2), RLD (8), and SBSP (6) with respective vote share of 12.88, 2.33, 0.21, 2.85, and 1.36 per cent.

There were 8 political parties in SP+ alliance, which included RLD and SBSP. Other political parties were PSP (Lohiya), Mahan Dal, Janvadi Party, AD (K), and NCP. After the split in NCP in Maharashtra, it is not clear how far it may impact the alliance in UP. RLD had skipped the Patna Opposition meet, but it has been insisting that SP should make alliance or some understanding with the Congress. Not only that RLD is more inclined to align with the Congress.

Congress had fought 2022 election alone and also the BSP. Their votes share has been considerably reduced but both are political forces of considerable importance in the state. As of now BSP has not revealed its preference for alliance either with NDA or with the Opposition, and hence it is likely to go alone in Lok Sabha 2024 election.

Bhagidari Parivartan Morcha was another alliance in 2022, which included 7 political parties – AIMIM, JAP, BMM, JKP, BVSP, PPI, and RUC. They have also considerable support among minority Muslims.

Left parties had separate alliance of 5 political parties CPI, CPI(M), CPI (ML), Forward Bloc, and SUCI (C). . The Left has little base in the state and in the Lok Sabha polls, this Left alliance will have little relevance. Unless they become a part of a broader anti-BJP alliance le by the SP.

The first and Second Opposition Meet in Bengaluru indicate that Left Parties and some of the Bhagidari Morcha are going to be part of the Grand Alliance against the BJP. However, the SP and the Congress have been too slow to form alliance and understanding in Uttar Pradesh. They seem to be still divided over alliance since SP believes that it is the only party in the state which would be chief beneficiary of anti-BJP votes. On the other hand, the Congress is dreaming to revive itself in the state on the anti-incumbency wave. However, both seem to be irrational, because even if they are proved right, they would be gaining much less than that is required to successfully take on the BJP.

BJP has flagged 18 seats in the red zone, and it is likely to drop about quarter of its sitting 62 MPs to overcome the impact of anti-incumbency. It is good news for the opposition but cannot nurture unreasonable hope of their own future, if they remain divided with significant division of anti-BJP votes. United opposition can upset BJP’s apple cart in the 4 of its present seats in the red zone, and 16 others from where the party intends to drop its sitting MPs. SP leader Akhilesh Yadav, being the largest opposition leader in the state, must have noted this situation. BJP is doing its best to get allies in UP, the SP and the Congress along with other anti-BJP parties must work out a common understanding before Lok Sabha elections in 2024. (IPA Service)