Positive winds of change are blowing in the troubled state's socio-economic life. This is reflected by some recent developments. For instance, tourists who had avoided visiting the state after the sporadic incidents of militant violence that have lately hit the state are again flocking to the “paradise on earth”. Kashmir is again the locale for film shootings by some Bollywood producers. Means of entertainment like night life, music and video parties which were virtually forced to shut down by the militants during the two post-1989 decades of militancy are back in action. Economic issues which had been pushed to the background due to the separatists agitations are regaining focus. People have started agitating over economic issues as highlighted by the recent strike by the state government employees mainly on the issue of implementation of Pay Commission's recommendations.

The positive winds of change have started blowing in the troubled state amidst hostile environs. Pakistan has revived attempts to facilitate large groups of armed infiltrators to bolster up the depleted strength of militants for giving a fillip to militancy which had recorded a steep decline in the last some years. The separatists have also not given up their attempts to keep the pot of separatism boiling by giving frequent bandh calls even on trivial issues. The latest such call affecting the Valley's normal life on April 23 was given by the Hurriyat Conference's hardliner and moderate factions against the death sentence awarded by a Delhi court to three convicts including two Kashmiris in the 1996 Lajpat Nagar blast case. The bandh call exposes separatists stand on the merits of judicial processes. On the one hand, they have been demanding that those committing human rights violations in the state should be punished which obviously have to take place through courts. On the other hand, without going into the merits of the Lajpat Nagar blast case verdict they instantly gave a call for the April 23 bandh.

The episode which reflects the alienation of the Valley's people on the issue of human rights violations explains the latest paradox. While their anger against the violation of human rights by the security forces in some cases cannot be described as unjustified, their failure to publicly protest against violation of human rights by terrorists who kill innocent Kashmiris is unexplainable as the people of the state want peace and end to violence. One reason for their contradictory behaviour perhaps is their fear of the terrorists.

“If you are not failing, you are not trying anything”. India and Pakistan's successive governments perhaps seem to be acting on Woody Allen'n advice for resolving the Kashmir tangle. Their successive ruling leaderships had evolved a formula through back channel efforts for the solution of Kashmir issue first in 1999 and then in 2007. But the endeavours failed both the times as Pakistani leaders did not honour their commitments. Instead of trying to normalize the relations between the two country, they preferred to fight among themselves to grab power with disastrous consequences for Pakistan's future. .

That India and Pakistan were “very close to reaching an agreement on the Kashmir issue” was revealed by former High Commissioner to India Niaz A Naik some years back in an interview with the Pakistan Observers. He said “It was first time during the one-on-one meeting between the then Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihar Vajpayee during the latter's historic bus visit to Lahore in February 1999 that the basis for Kashmir solution were laid. Both leaders committed to each other to break the deadlock on Kashmir and resolve the dispute through a quiet channel and a 10-month timeframe was decided for the permanent solution of Kashmir issue”.

Their efforts to solve the tangle came to naught following Pervez Musharraf's failed Kargal adventure and his taking over as Pakistan's dictator by ousting Musharraf.

The second time the Kashmir issue was almost resolved was in 2007 during Pervez Mausharraf and Dr. Manmohan Singh's Presidentship and Prime Ministership respectively.. This was revealed by Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri, Musharraf's foreign minister from 2002 to 2007 in an interview with Times of India on April 23. He said “the deal was cobbled together through secret parleys held in India, Pakistan and several foreign capitals for more than three years and could have resolved the thorny problem and political dispute, had not the anti-Musharraf upsurge triggered by the sacking of the chief justice convulsed Pakistan ultimately leading to the downfall of Musharraf.”

He said the two sides had agreed to full demlitarisation of both Jammu and Kashmir as well as Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. In addition, a package of loose autonomy that stopped short of the 'azadi' and self-governance aspirations, had been agreed on and was to be introduced on both sides of the disputed frontier. Almost all the actors on the Kashmir stage except the hardliner Syed Ali Shah Gilani were on board the accord that was to be signed during a visit of Manmohan Singh to Islamabad in February-March 2007 which, however, never happened due to the political upheaval in Pakistan.

That Washington had played a key role during 1999 and 2007 for normalization of relations between India and Pakistan by helping them resolve the Kashmir issue was detailed in the then Secretary of State Colin Powell's 2002 performance plan submitted to the US President outlining the State Department's strategic goals for 2003. The plan entailed that one of its strategic objectives will be to ensure that (cross border) infiltration and number of terrorist attacks (in J and K) declined by at least 50 percent from the 2002-2003 average. Musharraf agreed to follow the Collin reports guidelines which resulted in steep fall in infiltrations.

Encouraged by US President Obama's blatantly pro-Pakistan tilt and to pressurize India to resume composite dialogue without positively responding to India's demand for punishing the perpetrators of 26/11 killers, Pakistan Army has resumed infiltrations into J & K. It is in the background of these developments that New Delhi will have to suitably respond to the new situation in Jammu and Kashmir and India's relationship with Pakistan. (IPA Service)