The security establishment has taken into account the likelihood that anti-Modi quarters could try to deny Prime Minister Narendra Modi a third straight term. Therefore, debar citizens from New Delhi during the course of the G20 Summit, what if disruptors sneaked in with them? The security apparatus hasn’t ruled out the likelihood of Kamikaze attacks on prime locations/properties where G20 events will be held from September 8-10.

The extent of the paranoia is scary. India’s presidency of the G20 ends November of this year and the belief is that this left a limited window of opportunity for anybody thinking of using the G20 to make trouble for the Modi government and the BJP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is simultaneously overseeing an election campaign with the Opposition confident that this time the myth of Modi’s invincibility will be shattered and the sun will shine through.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi believes otherwise and the latest ‘Mood of the Nation Survey’ places Modi at the top of the heap though the Congress party’s prime ministerial hopeful Rahul Gandhi is a dark horse with a great chance to defeat Modi. That said, the ‘Mood of the Nation’ survey has been generous to the Prime Minister.

The survey says the BJP+ grouping will tally nearly 300 seats if elections were held today and Modi will continue to head the central government despite talk that a rebellion of sorts was brewing in the BJP and Modi faces tough times ahead if the BJP fares poorly in the Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana assembly elections.

This feeling of impending gloom doesn’t lift given that the opposition parties aren’t helping by uniting to take on BJP/NDA candidates one-on-one in as many parliamentary constituencies as is possible, the only manner in which the BJP can be defeated and Modi unseated. The overwhelming desire to see the back of the Prime Minister is heady and hard to dispel.

In fact, the Prime Minister is driving the Opposition’s campaign and providing grist to the mill that this time Modi will meet his Waterloo. The BJP’s counter-narrative is that the opposition alliance is not sure whether the BJP can be defeated given the Prime Minister’s popularity among key constituencies and select demographics.

The Hindutva vote-bank hasn’t deserted Modi and Modi’s campaign is moving forward with events like the Chandrayan-3 moon-landing. “Nationalism” continues to be a top BJP election plank. All that is needed is another Balakote and a couple of more Mani Shankar Aiyar quotes questioning Modi why India isn’t talking to Pakistan?

It would help if Aiyar clarified what benefits will accrue to opposition parties from Aiyar-interventions favouring Pakistan. The ‘Dawn’ newspaper says Pakistan should be grateful there are Indian leaders like Mani Shankar Aiyar still alive to speak for Pakistan. For some unreasonable reason, Aiyar is convinced championing Pakistan will fetch votes for the Congress.

But the Modi government’s paranoia is not Pakistan. The Modi regime is an example of once bitten twice shy. The ghosts of Shaheen Bagh, Farmers agitation, the “attack on the Red Fort”, the northeast Delhi riots during the Trump visit, and the violence triggered by Shobha Yatras and Hanuman Jayanti etcetera, etcetera have put the fear of disruptions in the security establishment of the Modi government.

Fears that the New Delhi G20 Summit will be targeted is eating at the Modi government. Turning Delhi into a fortress is the response. The kind of sophisticated weapons being talked about is mind-boggling – “weapons such as Israeli Tavor TAR-21 assault rifles and American Glock 17 pistols…Glocks equipped with "corner-shots", which are helpful when taking aim from different angles in a short-range battle.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s survival instincts are on full display. A move to remove stray dogs from the proximity of G20 venues was shot down but that doesn’t mean dogs will be given a free run. Dog lovers will not be allowed anywhere near venues where G20 events will unfold. Hotels where foreign guests will be housed will have "House Intervention Teams" or "HIT squads" to deal with “hostage situations”.

The paranoia is overwhelming. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has to ensure the G20 Summit is a success while at the same time not upset his vote-banks – the Hindutva as well as the Pasmanda even when it is a reality that both are not on the same page. The ‘Nuh’ violence upset Modi’s Pasmanda plans. Haryana Chief Minister Manoharlal Khattar was not happy though cozying up to the Nuh Muslims at the expense of alienating his Hindu vote-bank.

Haryana assembly elections will follow the 2024 general elections. The feeling in the BJP/VHP is that but for the swift containment of the Nuh violence, the situation could have turned like the northeast Delhi riots during the Trump visit. For the BJP, ‘Nuh’ is part of the conspiracy to malign India and tarnish Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s global standing in front of the world’s top leaders. Right now Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scared of his own shadow. (IPA Service)