Things did not work for the Congress and one of the Congress leaders who felt the repercussions was then Congress spokesperson Sanjay Jha who was suspended from the Congress. The ‘Mood of the Nation’ survey’s suggestion wasn’t accepted. And Priyanka Gandhi Vadra did not measure up to potential. Result: Narendra Modi stayed put at 7, Lok Kalyan Marg. The BJP won 282 Lok Sabha seats including 73/80 Uttar Pradesh seats.

Rahul Gandhi was Congress President at the time. And perhaps it was his decision not to take the survey’s recommendation seriously. Today, nearly 10 years hence, the Congress is part of a bigger alliance at the national level with the promise to implement the single opposition candidate per constituency formula in all the states. Question to ask: Will the BJP be curtailed to less than half its 2019 tally in Uttar Pradesh in 2024?

The 2019 advice was spurned by the grand old party which could have done with a slate of more politically savvy leaders. The “charismatic” Priyanka Gandhi Vadra did not set the Ganges on fire in 2019 and not everybody gets a second chance, but Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is beyond such trifling and she has been given another chance to show her electoral colours in the upcoming Madhya Pradesh assembly elections.

But the assembly elections in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana aren’t being tested with the one-opposition candidate formula. Meaning, the BJP will get its fair chance in all the states where assembly elections are due, with a direct Congress-BJP contest everywhere except in Telangana where the KCR-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi is the top draw, not the two national parties.

In 2019, the ‘Mood of the Nation’ poll had predicted that the number of BJP Lok Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh would fall to five in the May 2019 general elections if the Congress tied up with the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. Fortunately, for the Bharatiya Janata Party, Rahul Gandhi did not go for an opposition alliance and Prime Minister Narendra Modi got an easy walkover.

This, after the BJP was defeated in five assembly elections in 2018 including in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Then too the conditions weren’t different from now in 2024 — the same rural anger; the same low farm incomes and the same weak crop prices. The only difference: Likely a joint single opposition candidate against BJP candidates in all 543 Lok Sabha seats.

The 2019 general elections is a lesson for all opposition parties, not just for the Congress. It is closest to the 'divide we fall'. A large swathe of the electorate will not forgive the Congress if it fails to take on the BJP leading an opposition alliance. The Opposition has to field a single candidate in each Lok Sabha constituency and it is for the Congress to take the lead.

The January 2019 'Mood of the Nation' poll had predicted that the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal alliance would be victorious in 58 seats and the BJP and its Apna Dal ally would win 18 seats — and the Congress would corner only 4. Sanjay Jha had then boasted that the Congress would fight all 80 UP seats alone and defeat the “fascist corrupt BJP.”

Everybody knows that the single opposition candidate per constituency formula will take the wind out of the BJP’s sail, but there is also awareness that there are several variables that could stymie the Opposition’s strategy. For example, rejected candidates could crowd the rebel-ranks and then the whole purpose of preventing the division of opposition votes would go for a toss.

Still, the Opposition cannot dump the thought. The opposition parties must strive to ensure that there is one opposition candidate per constituency as much as possible. The BJP government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's hidden agenda is only now beginning to unfold. If India is left to Modi and Shah, the Opposition would soon be left without a role. The Congress cannot afford to repeat the 2019 mistake. (IPA Service)