In recent years and months, there has been a lot of literature on how the monk Chief Minister was threatening to overtake Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the people’s favourite. The likelihood of Modi giving way to Yogi at the helm in 2029 was often bandied about in Social Media.

The Yogi has several advantages over the ‘Vishwaguru’ and hardcore supporters of the BJP have a distinct liking for the shaven-headed monk-turned-politician who is often referred to as ‘Bulldozer Baba’. Modi just cannot conjure the same inspired imagery that the Yogi does. And though there is nothing to back it up, an intra-party rivalry between the Yogi and Modi isn’t hard to envisage.

That being said, would the BJP waste time on intra-party conspiracies? The only rivalry there is, is the INDIA-BJP fight for the conquest of India. And Ghosi happens to be “Panipat” in this first battle for electoral supremacy leading up to 2024. Unfortunately, for the BJP, Ghosi was going INDIA’s way and it was getting to be past noon.

The BJP was sliding and sliding fast. BJP candidate Dara Singh Chauhan, who had left the BJP to join the Samajwadi Party had returned to the BJP and was in a hurry to throw in the towel. By afternoon September 8, after 21 rounds of counting out of the total of 35, he appeared to be getting his wish. Voters were voting against price rise and other poorly placed economic indices. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bluffs were being called. The INDIA supported SP candidate was leading by 24802 votes and there is every sign that the lead is going to be bigger.

Contrary to expectations, Udhayanidhi Stalin’s Sanatana Dharma bashing did not leave any impact on voting. The 7 bypolls were being seen as a test for both alliances, the BJP-led NDA and the INDIA grouping. Victory or loss would decide which alliance stood that early chance to top the chart. For the INDIA block, a win in Ghosi would brighten up the horizon. For the BJP, a defeat would be a setback to the highflying Yogi. It would also demoralize Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

There will be implications for Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana. If the BJP loses all four states, or even one or two, there would be hell to pay for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His stock will fall like a wet-stone. The knives will be out for him. Don’t forget the RSS doesn’t think Modi has the mojo this time to take the BJP through. The RSS is waiting for Modi’s house of cards to fall.

So the Ghosi bypoll will decide which alliance has the edge. It is a test for INDIA and a challenge for the BJP-led NDA. Winning the bypolls in Tripura and losing the bypoll in Kerala wouldn’t matter, it is Ghosi which has to be won. And at the halfway point, the Samajwadi Party was winning by a huge margin.

Also on test is the BJP strategy of poaching opposition legislators. Not every deserter gets the plum he deserted for. Victory in Ghosi will establish the one candidate-one constituency formula. An understanding of seat-sharing will make it by far easier. The question is how the BJP will get out of the hole it has dug itself into?

The bypolls were held in Bageshwar in Uttarakhand, Ghosi in Uttar Pradesh, Puthuppally in Kerala, Dhupguri in West Bengal, Dumri in Jharkhand, and Boxanagar and Dhanpur in Tripura. About 4.30 lakh voted in the Ghosi bypoll. The SP's Sudhakar Singh was leading the BJP's Dara Singh Chauhan throughout the day and by 3 pm Sudhakar Singh was a clear winner. Will the BJP run out of options after the Ghosi defeat? (IPA Service)