Alarm bells started ringing loudly in the saffron camp ever since it lost the Dhupguri by-election to Trinamool Congress. A constituency reserved for scheduled tribes, it was won by a BJP candidate in 2021 Assembly elections. After his passing away, it was wrested by TMC nominee in a by election.

The Dhupguri defeat has sent shock waves through the BJP's leadership tiers. After all, this seat won in 2021 by a Rajbanshi community member who happened to be a BJP nominee, a defeat in the by-election was unexpected.

But it is a clear sign of erosion of the saffron base among the tribal community in the face of developmental programmes of the Trinamool state government. It is to be kept in mind that there was no Modi-Shah combine campaigning in the by-election for the BJP unlike the 2021 assembly poll campaign.

The wearing off of the saffron camp influence is indeed palpable. And it is all the more worrying for the BJP as Dhupguri is in the heart of North Bengal, considered to be a sound base for BJP just as south Bengal is for Trinamool.

So a tribal friendly election campaign programme has to be prepared by BJP for 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This is all the more necessary since Modi-Shah duo would not be as through a campaigner in 2024 election as it would be saddled responsibilities of a nationwide poll campaign. Inputs would be collected from the local leadership to be mulled over from central observers. Private survey agencies would also be deployed for independent assessment.

Hence comes the Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups Development Mission, a part of 2023-2024 Budget. Aimed to improve the condition of the PVTGs is timed with the birth anniversary of Birsa Munda. But PVTG is unlikely to have a major impact on improving the lot of the populace it aims at. For there are not too many Birhors belonging to the PVTGs in the state, certainly not in a percentage which can tilt the balance between victory and defeat.

The Santals are the dominant tribal community in West Bengal. As for the scheduled tribes, they range from the Asur to the Bedia.

Of course, there are central government schemes including term loans, Adivasi Siksa Rinn, Micro Credit Schemes of Self Help Groups to name a few. But the extent of their effective implementation supervised by local BJP MPs is questionable.

An irate crowd was faced by Malda (North) BJP MP Khagen Murmu after a stretcher-bound patient died in his constituency while being taken to the hospital. The road to his home was not motorable and hence unreachable by an ambulance, it was alleged.

Murmu's protest fell on deaf ears as the crowd insisted that insufficient funds were sanctioned by him for road repairs. In Darjeeling, the old bait of Gorkhaland will perhaps be dangled again before the Gorkhas.

But the fact remains whether this peoples group will be convinced by it. Moreover, a group of state BJP leaders are opposed to any proposal of dividing the state as they apprehend its fallout on extensive parts of south Bengal.

A Gita reading session by a lakh persons on December 24 is scheduled to be held in Brigade Parade Ground. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his nod to attend it, state BJP chief Sukanta Majumdar said.

In fact, Majumdar has been the "facilitator" between the PMO and organisers, Lokkho Konthe Gita Path Committee. Though chief minister, Mamata Banerjee and governor C V Anand Bose are among the invitees, TMC, Congress and the Left allege Majumdar 's involvement is a pointer to BJP using a religious occasion to spur the sentiments of a community towards the saffron vote bank.

In sum, the BJP's electoral game plan for 2024 elections comprising of these strategies does not augur a bright prospect for it. Even some of the senior leaders of the saffron camp feel that the present election strategy is falling short of requirements.

Thus there are reasons behind the apprehension in the saffron camp that the BJP election campaign trail is likely to be rolled out on thin ice next year. Intra party squabbles leading to not nursing the constituencies it had won can be stated to be at the top of the reasons behind the lack of optimism about holding on to several of the seats bagged by it.

The situation has been worsened following a call from Union home minister, Amit Shah recently exhorting the state unit to fetch 35 seats from West Bengal out of the total of 42 seats. It is indeed a tall order if ever there was one.

Inner party squabbles broke out in the districts and spread to the state party headquarters in Kolkata. It started with fisticuffs and dissidents locking in the local MP of Bankura within the district party headquarters. The BJP high command has asked three factions of the BJP in the state to work unitedly in the poll campaign, but as of now, the differences continue. The state BJP leadership is lacking solid electoral strategy to face the challenge of a highly organized Party like Trinamool Congress. (IPA Service)