The Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) is a group comprising of three separatist organizations based in Myanmar. These organizations include the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Arakan Army (AA), and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). The 3BHA aims to gain autonomy or independence for their respective ethnic groups within Myanmar. India has been closely monitoring their activities as the conflict in Myanmar could have implications for its own security and stability.

New Delhi is getting more worried about safety, especially in the states of Manipur and Mizoram, which are next to Myanmar in the north. On October 27, the 3BHA began the operation in Shan state, which is in northern Myanmar. Media reports claim that the expanding onslaught, dubbed "Operation 1027" after its commencement date, has apparently taken control of over 135 military locations.

Main border crossings with China and the town of Rihkhawdar, which borders the Indian state of Mizoram, are reportedly no longer under the jurisdiction of Myanmar's armed forces, the Tatmadaw. In addition, armed factions have extended their conflict to the Thai border state of Kayah, as well as the Indian border states of Chin and Sagaing.

Due to the conflict, thousands of people from Myanmar, including many military, sought safety in Mizoram last week. After that, the troops were flown to a different border crossing and returned to Myanmar. India has demanded that the violence stops. India's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi told reporters, "We reiterate our call for the return of peace, stability, and democracy in Myanmar."

People from Myanmar have moved to the Indian side as a result of the fighting in the Rihkhawdar area of Chin State, which is located across Zokhawthar in Mizoram on the border between India and Myanmar. Such incidences near our border give us great concern," Bagchi stated.

Experts and scholars who have been closely following the issue feel that any further escalation in hostilities could be troublesome because Mizoram and Myanmar share a porous border spanning 510 kilometres (317 miles).

In order to protect its larger interests in Myanmar, the Indian government has developed a twin defensive strategy, according to a lecturer at SOAS University in London who spoke to a media outlet. This strategy involves strengthening cross-border security measures while also maintaining backing for the junta.

The lecturer, who specialises in South Asian strategic issues, told the media Outlet that "the situation in Manipur has direct links to Myanmar and it is unlikely that New Delhi will undertake strategic revisions in its approach towards its eastern neighbour in the near term."

India would need to develop equity within the resistance ranks on terms defined by the junta if the pushback against the Naypyidaw, (capital city of Myanmar) is successful in overthrowing it, which is not a guarantee at this time, the source said.

Vikram Misri, India's deputy national security adviser, was present at a event in Myanmar on October 15th to commemorate the eighth anniversary of a cease-fire between rebels. In order to settle ethnic disputes, he pushed for the treaty's reinforcement.

Critics of the 2021 coup, which unleashed a brutal crackdown on dissent and provoked renewed conflict with some of it, claim the 2015 Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) is in ruins. To give a brief of the above, The role of the junta, or military leadership (also known as the Tatmataw), in both the 2015 NCA and the 2021 coup in Myanmar is significant. In 2015, the junta played a key role in negotiating and signing the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement with various ethnic armed groups. This agreement was seen as a major step towards peace, aiming to end decades-long conflicts and initiate a political dialogue for a more inclusive and democratic future.

However, in 2021, the junta orchestrated a coup, overthrowing the democratically-elected government and seizing power. This coup resulted in a brutal crackdown on dissent, with widespread human rights violations and a renewed escalation of conflicts in different parts of the country. The actions of the junta since the coup have been widely condemned by critics, who argue that it has not only destroyed the progress made under the NCA but also plunged Myanmar into a state of crisis and turmoil. Since the fight started in 2021, New Delhi has continued to have a constructive relationship with the military of Myanmar, which goes by the name of the State Administration Council (SAC).

According to a May UN report, Indian government-owned and private firms have sent the military junta $51 million (€46.5 million) worth of weapons, dual-use goods, and raw materials since February 2021. They are a neighbouring country with whom we cooperate and engage on a number of subjects. When asked about India's arms sales to the Myanmar regime, Bagchi said, "We always act in the best interests of our country."

The president and founder of the independent research forum Mantraya, Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, told a media outlet that there are no signs that India's Foreign Ministry is reconsidering its support for the Myanmar regime. This has occurred in spite of multiple demands made to New Delhi by the parallel National Unity Government to modify its pro-junta stance."

She drew attention to the fact that New Delhi maintains an ambiguous wait-and-watch approach, continuing to believe that the junta will eventually triumph and that the current onslaught of rebels is really a temporary phenomena. D'Souza continued, "New Delhi is undoubtedly worried about the conflict's potential to spread to the northeastern states, but it appears that it is counting on the junta rather than the rebels to reduce this." (IPA Service)