In the midst of protests by Opposition parties, the Bangladesh Election Commission has set January 7 next year , as the date for the parliamentary elections. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is seeking a fourth term in office, aiming to solidify her legacy as the longest-serving Prime Minister of Bangladesh. However, the current political environment is challenging, with widespread protests, strikes, blockades and violence escalating between the ruling Awami League and the Opposition parties. This situation has led to concerns that Bangladesh is highly polarized and the holding of fair elections may not be a smooth affair.

After the election dates were announced on November 15, chaos erupted in various districts of Bangladesh, such as Chattogram (better known as Chittagong), Dhaka, Chandpur, Ghazipur, Sylhet, Noakhali and Bogura. The Opposition parties—the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami—imposed a 48-hour blockade, leading to the destruction of vehicles and the burning of a passenger train at Tangail railway station. As a result, multiple passengers and drivers were injured and sustained burns.

Leading up to the coming elections, Bangladesh has experienced a series of protests across the country. On October 28, the BNP organized a large rally demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The rally turned violent when Opposition protesters allegedly attacked the homes of judges and set vehicles on fire.

In response, the police used teargas, rubber bullets and batons, leading to casualties and injuries. The police also conducted raids and detained numerous activists and their family members. A police officer was killed and several journalists were injured. The BNP claimed that the rally was peaceful until the police intervened, while the ruling party labelled the BNP a “terrorist organization”.

Numerous activists from the Opposition parties have been detained, and the BNP has declared that it will not participate in the January 2024 elections unless Prime Minister Hasina steps down and a neutral caretaker government is established to oversee the election process. The demand for a caretaker government was initially made by the Jamaat-e-Islami, the largest Islamic party in Bangladesh, in June. The party had been prohibited from participating in elections for almost 10 years.

In 2011, the Supreme Court of Bangladesh had ruled that the requirement for an elected government to hand over power to an unelected caretaker administration to manage new parliamentary elections was against the law. However, the BNP claims that there is still a possibility of establishing a caretaker government under the current constitution, but the Hasina government consistently argues against the constitutionality of this practice.

In recent years, the Awami League government has taken several legal steps to ensure free and fair elections. These measures include implementing the Parliament Election (Electronic Voting Machine) Rules in 2018, passing the Delimitation of Constituencies Act in 2021 and enacting the Chief Election Commissioner and Election Commissioners Appointment Act in 2022.

This Act is the first of its kind in the subcontinent and aims to make the election commission more unbiased and capable. Amendments have also been made to the Conduct Rules for Political Parties and Candidates and the Election Conduct Rules of 2008 to enhance the fairness, inclusivity and credibility of elections.

Despite the possibility of election boycotts, there is a prevailing sense of optimism within the ruling party and the election commission. This may be attributed to the government’s implementation of legal measures, its confidence in winning for the third time in a row, or the absence of a prominent figure in the Opposition. As a result, the election commission has released a detailed schedule for the elections, including the appointment of 66 returning officers and 592 assistant returning officers.

The deadline for submitting nomination papers was on November 30. Between December 1 and 4, the selection of candidates took place and those who were chosen have the option of withdrawing their candidacy until December 17. The allocation of symbols will take place on December 18 and the campaign period will run until 8 am on January 5, 2024.

Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal has pledged to create a favourable environment for free and fair elections in all 42,000 polling stations and 262,000 booths. He has also assured that necessary measures have been taken to ensure transparency and credibility. While it is comforting to see such optimism from the election body, there may be doubts about the practical implementation of these measures due to the volatile ground situation.

While the Awami League is trying to project a calm image amid internal unrest, external factors may add more worry lines. The United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner (UNHRC) released a report on October 31 expressing deep concern about the violent incidents occurring during the ongoing protests in Bangladesh. The UNHRC called on all political actors to unequivocally condemn such violence and refrain from making any statements or taking actions that could incite further violence, especially as the country approaches elections.

The United States has consistently emphasized the importance of democratic elections in Bangladesh and actively pursued this objective through various means—including diplomacy and the use of sanctions. In 2021, the US imposed sanctions on seven former and current high-level officials of Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion over allegations of human rights abuses, with the aim of holding them accountable for their actions.

American Ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas has held meetings with families of alleged abduction victims, including the family of BNP leader Sajedul Islam Sumon. Bangladesh was not invited to US Summit for Democracy and the US has recently imposed visa restrictions on individuals from Bangladesh believed to have played a role in undermining the democratic election process in the country.

The European Union (EU) has stated that, due to budget limitations and the absence of necessary conditions, it will not be able to send a full election observer team to Bangladesh. This announcement has added weight to the Opposition’s concerns that the elections may not be conducted in a free and fair manner.

When compared to Western countries, China and India—Bangladesh’s largest and second-largest trading partners—have shown a more measured response to the Dhaka elections. Although they, too, express the desire for free and fair elections in the country, China has emphasized its support for the Bangladesh government against external interference.

India, on the other hand, recognizes that exerting excessive pressure on the government could strengthen fundamentalist elements within the Opposition. India has urged the US to avoid putting excessive pressure on the Bangladesh government as regional stability could be jeopardized. With the longest land boundary shared between the two countries, India acknowledges and admires the proactive approach of the Hasina government in combating terrorism. India respects Bangladesh’s democratic process and emphasizes that it is an internal matter for the country.

Bangladesh’s fast-paced economic growth, its strategic location as a land connection between South and South-East Asia and its position overseeing important shipping routes in the Bay of Bengal have made it a reliable partner for multiple Indo-Pacific countries. Therefore, stability within Bangladesh is crucial not just for the country itself, but also for overall regional stability. Any internal conflicts within Bangladesh can have adverse implications for the rest of the Indo-Pacific region. (IPA Service)