In this dark scenario the only solace has been possible with a dominant share of jobs generated by micro and small units of the unorganized sectors without any formal or written job contract. In both government and private sectors, the number of contract jobs (with less than a year’s contract) is on the rise since 2015-17. Not surprisingly, real wages have not increased in either rural or urban areas.
It is also a stage of shift in the structural transformation in Indian economy with a significance of its own. The share and number of workers in agriculture has been declining with corresponding fall in employment in non-farm sectors since 2016. In the available most recent data, only the service sector is driving the growth of jobs in the non-farm sectors, while employment growth in construction has declined. There is also a fall in availability of jobs in manufacturing sector since 2017-18.
The slowing demand scenario in the employment opportunities which makes the job market uneven, has worsened the unemployment situation among a huge number of youth with proper education and also training. In this process, the youth is suffering from identity crisis that may erode their capacity to take any plunge to come out of the crisis. There is a growing rate of suicides among such youths which is tragic.
Moreover, the share of organized sector employment in non-farm sectors declined from about 34.5 percent to 29.5 percent during post 2018-22. Despite the skill development, it also includes those, who neither actively were searching for jobs nor attending further education and training. The question comes here why the unemployment rate still going up among those from highly educated, and trained youth to an unprecedented rate. These figures are estimated considering the entire status of employment among these individuals. The sectoral employment, organized-unorganized and formal-informal employment, are computed using other information like National Industrial Classification (NIC) codes, enterprise type, number of workers in the enterprise, types of job contract, availability of social security benefits. All these NSS estimates are adjusted to the projected census population to obtain absolute numbers. The enterprise survey conducted during 2010-11 and 2015-16 are used to estimate the number of registered and un-registered enterprises.
Falling total employment is an unprecedented trend seen from 2015-16 to 2017-18 and still continuing. Due to a decline of employment in agriculture and manufacturing and slow growth of construction jobs, the process of structural transformation, which had gained momentum post-2004-05, has stalled since 2017. Mounting unemployment of educated youth, and poor quality of non-farm jobs have caused an increase in the disheartened labour force. In these days of the unusual fall, that has come with a threat of stagnation, most jobs are still generated by micro and small units of the unorganized sector. In government/public sector, the number and share of jobs have gone down dramatically. Moreover, contract jobs and jobs without any written contract have increased massively in both government and private sectors. Not surprisingly, real wages have not increased since almost a decade in neither rural nor urban areas. A comprehensive employment policy combined with an industrial policy is necessary to address agrarian transformation, boost real wages in rural areas, ensuring industrial development, taking skill issues into consideration.
The slow growth (or scarcity) of non-farm jobs and the rising unemployment together have resulted in a loss of faith in the system itself. Youth “Not in Labour Force, Education and Training” has gone up by about two million per annum during 2015-16 and 2018-20, which further increased by about 3 million pa 2020-21 and 2020-21. About 100.2 million youth declared themselves as “Not in Labour Force, Education and Training” during 2017-18. The states in which incidence of unemployment is higher, they also have reported large number of disheartened labour force in the form of “Not in Labour Force, Education and Training” youth.
Total decline in opportunities for employment that had started in 2015-2018, goes on even now. This happened for the first time in India’s history. The agriculture sector continued to register decline of employment at the rate of 4.5 million pa (about 27 million in total) during 2015-16 and 2017-18. The share of employment in agriculture and allied sector also declined from 49 percent to about 44 percent. During this period manufacturing also recorded a 3.5 million decline in jobs, which resulted in a fall in its share of employment from 12.6 to 12.1 percent. Falling manufacturing jobs is the opposite of the goal of ‘Make in India’, and unless the grounds are taken care of, it would not be possible to sustain the process of structural transformation. (IPA Service)
EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR EDUCATED YOUTH HAVE DECLINED SHARPLY
EROSION OF REAL WAGES HAS MADE THE LIVELIHOOD OF WORKERS BITTER
Krishna Jha - 2023-12-14 10:47
According to available data, there has been a steady decline in the availability of employment in agriculture and manufacturing. Growth of construction jobs have also been slow. The process of structural transformation, which had gained momentum post 2004-5, has almost stopped since 2016. There has been a spread of gloom especially among the educated youth since there is stagnation in hiring trend especially in sectors of hospitality. New job opportunities in AI sector and related fields have been mounting though at a relatively slower rate. Even after spending so much time and resources on getting specialized education, there is constant lack of quality non-farm jobs. This reality has shadowed up all hopes among the already disheartened labour force.